The economic history of the past 2,000 years begins with little change for many centuries. Then, in the 17th century, things began to change—a lot.
Energy progressed from waterwheels and windmills to steam engines, electrification, and the fossil fuel economy. Each revolution brought lower prices, wider adoption, and increases in human productivity, incomes and wealth.
Energy powered the factory system, in which standardized parts enabled output to skyrocket compared to the age of one-at-a-time production by artisans making custom articles. One may have romantic notions about the age of the artisan, but far more people could afford shoes when they came out of a factory.
And that was just the beginning of the modern world, with its incredible increase in living standards and lifespans.
Country by country, the pattern is rising urbanization and the decline of subsistence agriculture as economies modernize. It happened first in Europe and America. China is well along this path. The effect on incomes and economic growth is nothing short of astonishing, as you can see on the chart.
As investors, we see what may be a compelling opportunity from two current trends coming together. The next energy revolution, built on solar technology and battery storage, will enable vast parts of the developing world to modernize more quickly. Just as some places skipped the copper-wire age of telephones and built cell towers, in the years ahead some areas will skip the age of fossil fuels for electricity as solar power gains the economies of scale.
The most populous democracy in the world, India, is at an early stage of the trend to urbanization and modernity. Two thirds of the people live in rural areas; many are still engaged in subsistence farming. With a culture that values literacy and education, India is poised for growth and progress. Some believe that India is where China was twenty or thirty years ago—before decades of rapid economic growth. Add the next energy revolution to the mix, and you can see that exciting times may lie ahead.
The economy of India already includes some global companies, and many more publicly owned companies producing goods for the local market and nearby neighbors. By our standards, it is investable: money can be effectively invested with a reasonable expectation of gains. The India exposures we are putting in place are traded on the New York Stock Exchange, and priced in US dollars.
Of course, the future is uncertain, and there are no guarantees. As with all long-term investments, prices may be volatile. Clients, if you would like to discuss how a small India allocation might affect your portfolio, please call us or send email.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.