Moving Target

© Can Stock Photo / Spotmatikphoto

We have observed that spending in retirement is a moving target. One theory says we spend more money in the early years of retirement than in the later years. Financial planner Michael Stein describes it this way: the Go-Go years, the Slow-Go years, and the No-Go years.

Spending in retirement impacts some of our most fundamental plans and planning. Retirees have a wide range of lifestyles, avocations, and circumstances which take money. It’s a personal thing.

In our experience we see people spend less as they age. When we first noticed this trend, we wondered if that was because some people run low on money. However, we recently have taken note that people with resources tend to spend less as time goes on. (Health expenses may run counter to this trend, increasing toward the end of life).

Each person has their own objectives and habits, and life throws some curve balls too. Case by case, it could make sense to plan on spending more in the early years of retirement. Bucket list items, to be done once, might come early in retirement.

The Alaska cruise, trip to Hawaii, or tour of Europe should be undertaken when you have the time and money and health to do it. The boat or camper, if one is desired, should be purchased when one has more years to enjoy it.

One of the most gratifying parts of our work is working with people on their plans and planning. We’ve worked with some of you from mid-career all the way into many years of retirement. Each one of you is as different as a fingerprint.

Clients, if you would like to talk in more detail about your retirement aspirations or anything else, please email us or call.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

 

Self-Driving Skeptics

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We’ve been studying the evolution of the automobile for several years. One of the major trends is toward autonomous vehicles, or self-driving cars. While the future is unknowable, some interesting observations can be made.

Folks around beautiful downtown Louisville, out in the heartland, tend to have a tough time picturing the use of self-driving vehicles. Meanwhile, residents of Boston or Los Angeles seem to have a different take.

Autopilot for navigating a few minutes in Nebraska between Louisville and Weeping Water, or Cedar Creek and Plattsmouth, especially if gravel roads are involved, is not exactly a big deal. Not much time is involved, and the complexity of the driving may be beyond self-driving capabilities for many years.

But if you spend an hour commuting on I-93 in Boston or on the 405 in metro LA, being able to go hands-free from onramp to offramp is a game-changer. This kind of capability is available now in certain Tesla models, and we’ve been able to speak with people who have experienced it.

One basically may recover an hour or more for replying to correspondence, making calls, texting, reading, or working on documents. To be able to do this during a commute instead of during the first hour in the office or at home in the evening enhances work and life.

Small town friends who get to the big city and have a chance to drive in hands-free mode admit that it is disconcerting at first when you remove hands and feet from the controls. But within a short time they begin to feel that the car is a safe driver.

Other automakers may be close to introducing similar systems. We won’t pretend to know what the pace of adoption will be, nor the growth in capabilities over the years ahead. But it is clear that self-driving technology has changed the way some people live and work already.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

The Rip Van Winkle Effect

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Rip Van Winkle is a character in a Washington Irving short story written nearly two centuries ago. You might know the story: Rip sleeps for twenty years up in the mountains, eventually returning home to find that much had changed.

One of the most dynamic companies in the world emerged on the scene a little over twenty years ago. An investor who purchased it on its first day of trading would have made several hundred times his original investment, had they held all the way through.

In spite of the incredible long-term result, it would have been very difficult to achieve even if one had bought in early. If you carefully looked every day to see how it was doing, as of November 12th this is what you would have experienced:

• On 1,346 of the days of ownership, the value would have been less than 50% of its previous peak. This is nearly one day in four, out of the 5,410 trading days in question1.
• On 494 of the days, the value would have been down 80% from the prior peak.
• The worst drop from a prior peak would have been 94%.

It isn’t always easy to hold an investment that has declined in value. We strive to own bargains, even when they become better bargains. (Once upon a time, a client asked me “What kind of moron would watch a stock go down from $11 to $7, dropping day after day, and do nothing?” Of course, I am that kind of moron.)

We have noticed that a certain few of our clients use the Rip Van Winkle effect, to their benefit. In the example above, they would have accepted in advance they would be under water at times, and just held for the long term. They enjoy the long-term result, without the day to day anguish of fluctuating values—they did not need to look every day.

We work diligently to understand what we should own, and why. Sometimes we change our opinion and sell at a loss. But often the Rip Van Winkle effect would help us. Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please call.

Notes & References

1. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Retrieved November 12th, 2018.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation. Your results will vary. The hypothetical rates of return used do not reflect the deduction of fees and charges inherent to investing.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Honestly, It’s Not For Everyone

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Louisville, Nebraska has been the home of our business even before we moved into the office at 228 Main. It was our family home for many years before I started my practice, and it was from that home office that I struck out into business on my own.

I have mixed feelings about the great state of Nebraska. I enjoy seeing all of the friendly faces I know and love, and I look forward to many more days working in beautiful downtown Louisville. I do not look forward to spending several dozen more winters in Nebraska, but as you probably know, I have ways around that.

Nebraska’s tourism commission just unveiled a new ad campaign that embraces some of these feelings, announcing “Nebraska: Honestly, it’s not for everyone.”

Perhaps this slogan explains why the state is so near and dear to our hearts. We do not put much stock in advertising, but if we did, “it’s not for everyone” would be an apt slogan for our own business.

We are contrarians by nature. We like to think that we know what we are about, and through our communications, we hope we can give you some idea of what we are about as well. We do not have a lot of time to spend trying to be anything else. We know we are not always going to be a good fit, and would rather work with those we are than try to be everything to everybody.

We are definitely not for everyone. We do not want to be in business with everyone; we want to be in business with the best clients in the world. In our opinion, we are lucky enough to have found them.

Clients, if you want to discuss anything, please email us or call.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

 

The Three Investment Strategies

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Great thinker Morgan Housel recently wrote that there are only three legal investment strategies.

1. Be smarter than others.
2. Be luckier than others.
3. Be more patient than others.

Does one of these jump out at you as being a lot more accessible than the others?

Luck falls where it may. We do not control the luck we have. Smarts? We do what we can to improve our odds. Reading, studying, analyzing, thinking…we do our best to understand what we can. But there will probably always be somebody smarter, somewhere.

The edge that anyone may choose is patience. We talk endlessly about the long view, about waiting out the downturns, about hanging in there when times seem rough. Anyone may choose patience, but it is not always easy!

After decades, we have yet to see a fool-proof indicator that will tell you which way the market is going to go in the short run. Nor have we seen evidence that any person can reliably predict the direction of the market. But we do know a couple key things:

• In the past, the broad market has tended to go up about three years out of four, and down about one year out of four.1
• Over extended periods, these ups and downs have potential gains for those who are patient.

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, of course, so it takes some courage to exercise patience. We appreciate that in you.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

Notes & References

1. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Retrieved November 26th, 2018.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Grateful for Wealth in Many Forms

© Can Stock Photo / BVDC

The Thanksgiving season is a natural time to reflect on the things for which we are grateful. We each have our own list, of course—it’s a personal thing. Perhaps there are similarities between your list and mine.

I think of the connections to friends, family, colleagues, and clients. You in these overlapping groups hearten me for life’s challenges, great and small. You strengthen me with the stories of your lives. You make me optimistic about the future, come what may.

I think of being able to make the most of the challenges we’ve been given, in part because of the material blessings we’ve received for our efforts. We have seen up close, the link between prosperity and health.

I think of my work, so enjoyable that I want to do it to age 92. Many people work only until they do not need to, at jobs that will be a joy to retire from. We’re always happy to help you who are in that boat, while being grateful for our situation.

I think of how glorious life is, here in the 21st century. 228 Main has been wonderful as the center of our business universe. And www.228Main.com, just a gleam in my eye at the dawn of the new century, has proven to be more beneficial than we ever dreamed.

Sunshine on my face, wind in my hair, fish jumping, birds fishing, babies laughing, old friends, fond memories and a thousand other things round out my list.

Happy Thanksgiving! Please email us or call if we can make things any better for you.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

 

In Praise of Gratitude

© Can Stock Photo / PetarPaunchev

The Harvard Medical School published an essay with this same title some time ago. The key lines: “Gratitude is strongly and consistently associated with greater happiness. Gratitude helps people feel more positive emotions, relish good experiences, improve their health, deal with adversity, and build strong relationships.”

Gratitude may be about past blessings, current conditions, or reflect a hopeful and optimistic attitude about the future. One of the best things about an attitude toward gratitude is that it can be cultivated.

In one study, three groups of people were directed to write a few sentences each week. One group was instructed to write about irritations or things that had displeased them. The second was directed to write about things that had affected them. The third group was directed to focus on things that had happened for which they were grateful.

After ten weeks, one group was more optimistic about life, and had a greater sense of well-being. That group also happened to exercise more and make fewer visits to the doctor. You can guess which one.

We believe there are interesting applications to the work we do together with you. Short term fluctuations in the markets may be irritating, but gratitude for long term returns might let us focus on more rewarding mindsets. The economy and markets always seem to be a mixed bag, but gratitude for opportunities may help us avoid a focus on problems that might prevent us from investing effectively.

At the heart of all this is the simple truth that we get to choose what gets our attention, what we focus on. Does choosing gratitude make us healthier, wealthier, and wiser? No guarantees, but we might have more fun while we find out together.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Simple or Complicated? You Choose

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The object of a household budget is to end up with control of your finances.

If you Google “steps in budgeting” you will find results ranging from three steps to ten steps. Each one involves accounting for all of your outlays to the penny. The process must be repeated every month, and requires ongoing work to maintain.

Budgeting works well for some people, particularly when money is tight. If you might not be able to afford food unless you pay careful attention, you probably better pay careful attention.

But another, far simpler method works for many others. You pay yourself first, and spend or save what is left over. Paying yourself first can take many forms, but the most fool-proof methods are automatic.

• 401(k) plan contributions at work, by payroll deduction.
• IRA or Roth contributions, by automatic monthly bank account transfers.
• Investment account deposits by automatic bank debits.

You may need to do some arithmetic to see if your monthly investment amounts are likely to get you where you want to go. (We can help with this.) After that is done, all you need to do is pay yourself first!

Some of you enjoy keeping careful records of spending, and we would not discourage that. At a minimum, being mindful about our outlays makes sense. But for others, the simpler method may fit in better to your real life. It is a personal choice.

Simple or complicated? You choose. Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Choose Your Risks Wisely

© Can Stock Photo / alphaspirit

When you think about your finances over the course of a lifetime, it is easier to see that risks may only be selected, not avoided.

Our first understanding of risk often relates to fluctuations in value. If you put in a dollar, and the value soon drops to 80 cents or 60 cents, it seems like a clear (and vivid!) loss.

Money buried in a can would never have that kind of risk, yet its purchasing power—what you could buy with it—declines year by year if there is any inflation at all. This kind of damage reminds us of termites, which chew away behind the scenes, causing damage that is not obvious.

Longer term fixed income investments, like bonds, offer interest that may offset inflation in whole or in part. But the value of a bond may change with interest rates. A 3% bond is probably not going to be worth its face amount in a 6% world.

The interesting thing about all these different kinds of risks is that they cannot be entirely avoided, but they may be balanced against each other.

• The things that fluctuate in value may provide growth over the long term to offset inflation.
• Having money in hand when needed may enable us to live with fluctuating values in other parts of our holdings.
• Reliable income helps us avoid excess amounts of money laying around.

We think one of the most valuable lessons about risk is that, on our long term investments, volatility is not risk. If we aren’t retiring for many years, ups and downs in our retirement accounts may not be all that pertinent.

The stock market, measured by either the Dow Jones Average or the S&P 500 Index, has risen three years out of four. There is no guarantee that this general pattern continues, or how results will work out over future periods. But someone that invested ten, twenty or forty years ago may have seen a lot of growth overall, in spite of fluctuations ever year—and some years that were negative.

Clients, if you would like to talk about the balance of risks in your situation or anything else, please email us or call.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

Why Not Just Pull Back?

© Can Stock Photo / bthompson2001

The market has been rough lately! Seems like account values are shrinking month by month. In times like these, clients sometimes ask why we don’t just pull back when the market starts going down. It is a fair question.
We are thinking about a number of things in formulating investment strategy and tactics:

1. The average decline in the course of a calendar year in the major market averages is about 13%1. Basically, the market is always going down—and up.

2. A wag once noted that the market has predicted nine of the last five recessions. In other words, it may decline 10 or 20% without signifying anything about the health of the economy.

3. The times when it seems to make the most sense to sell out often turn out to be good times to be invested.

In short, the ups and downs are part of investing. We each face a choice between stability of values, and long term investment returns. There is no way to get both of these things on all of our money, although we may have some of each.

It is important to know where our money will come from, the funds we need in our pocket. For investors, it is also important to know our long-term portfolios will go up and down.

We mentioned above that the average stock market decline in the course of a year is 13%1. Let’s be clear about what that means: a $13,000 drop on a $100,000 portfolio; $65,000 on half a million; $130,000 on $1 million.

Here’s some solace: by the time you notice we’ve been skewered, we are closer to recovery than when the decline began. One year out of four, on average, the market (measured by the S&P 500) declines. Think about it—three years out of four, on average, it has gone up.

We don’t pull back because we do not want to miss the rebound. Our experience has been that we can live with the ups and downs. It isn’t always easy, but our experience has been that it works out over time.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

Notes and References

1. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Retrieved November 5th, 2018.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing, including stocks, involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation. Your results will vary. The hypothetical rates of return used do not reflect the deduction of fees and charges inherent to investing.