Month: May 2018

Will Rising Rates Derail the Economy?

© Can Stock Photo / focalpoint

At 228Main.com, we are voracious readers and consumers of information. Nothing happens in a vacuum. We therefore pay attention to the economy, the markets, and our holdings, as well as look for potential opportunities to invest. Recently it was time to sort out what it all might mean.

Rising interest rates, long expected here, have caught our attention. Home mortgage rates are at a seven year high1, and other consumer borrowing rates have increased as well. If we spend more on interest payments, we have less to spend on other goods and services.

We investigated, and learned that total household debt payments actually remain near the lowest point in many decades, although they are rising. But the total debt balances are at record highs, above the level reached before the 2008 credit crisis. What gives?

The answer is in the interest rates. Higher debt levels financed at lower rates have reduced our payments as a percent of income. If loan interest rates continue to rise, however, we will probably see more household income go to payments on debt.

There is another piece of income that doesn’t get spent: our savings rate. When we feel confident about the future and our 401(k)’s and other investments are growing, we tend to save less. When the outlook darkens, we tend to save more.

Our savings rate declined from 6% of disposable income at the end of the last recession to the 3% neighborhood now. Historically, it has been slightly lower at times—but we are probably close to the bottom.

The amount we spend is what is left after debt payments and savings—and one more thing: taxes. Taxes, like the other factors, seem to be at relatively low levels now—not likely to go lower. The 2017 tax reform cut levels sharply.

We believe it is likely that record amounts of debt face rising rates in the years ahead; our savings rate will rise sooner or later; and there is no more room to cut taxes. The net effect of these three things seems likely to eventually reduce consumer spending, which is an important driver of the overall economy.

We do not think we are on the verge of recession. Other indicators point to continued growth. But we are in the middle or later stages of the growth cycle—not the beginning. We are looking at opportunities that fit the times, as always.

Clients, if you would like to discuss this or anything else, please email us or call.

1All data from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/. Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Accessed May 22nd, 2018

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Only Thirty Years Left

© Can Stock Photo / stokkete

In the merry month of May a long time ago, I graduated from college in a new cheap suit and embarked on my career in financial services. The first entry on the resume was life insurance agent, the Prudential Insurance Company of America.

The insurance companies managed their affairs with vast armies of file clerks and secretaries and bookkeepers, filling towers of offices in major cities. There were no computers on desktops, long distance telephone calls cost a lot of money, and typing a letter was surprisingly time consuming.

Just a few years before, the New York Stock Exchange got so far behind in its record-keeping that it was forced to stay closed on Wednesdays for months in order to catch up the paperwork. This was due to the record trading volume of…wait for it…TWELVE MILLION SHARES A DAY.

Needless to say, times have changed a lot since I got in business.

I don’t understand how it happened, but I am turning age 62 this month. My plan to work to age 92 may be keeping me young. Between our digital communications, expansion of the team, reworking our systems and processes, keeping up with economic and market developments, and talking to you, there isn’t really time to feel old.

Thinking about the arc of this career so far, I began in the 20th century with a company founded in the 19th century. And now we are at the vanguard of the 21st century.

It feels like this unfolding age was made for us. We understand how to communicate with you in the new media. Being straightforward is a big edge when everything you say and do is visible. Word of mouth is a speed-of-light phenomena nowadays.

At this milestone, with so much left to do, we are grateful to be alive and part of it. With the best clients in the world and support by LPL Financial, we are very fortunate.

Clients, thank you all, again, for everything. If we can do anything for you, email us or call. Here’s to a great thirty years ahead, for you and for us.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Leibman Financial Services and LPL Financial are not affiliated.

No Free Lunch

© Can Stock Photo / 279photo

From time to time, we meet people who are devoted to avoiding the worst selloffs in the market. When there are so many simple statistical tools available to keep track of the trend, they say, it makes no sense to stay in the market when the trend is against you.

For example, by selling out when the major stock market indices dip below their 200 day moving averages, and buying back only when they climb back above, one could have avoided significant damage in the worst downturns.

The problem is, one could also have avoided some really sharp recoveries from low levels. And in any lengthy test of these mechanical rules, generally they would have cost money to implement.

The key question is, what fraction of your total returns would you be willing to give up in order to get a smoother ride along the way? Would it be OK to have 30% less money after twenty years? 20% less? 40% less?

Our point is, there is a cost to the human preference for stability. There is no free lunch. The trend-following systems that save you from damage also tend to water down your results over the long term.

We believe we get paid to endure volatility. Living with the ups and downs when so few are willing to do it…that’s what we do. We seek to understand what fraction of your money can be invested for the long term, without regard to volatility—and invest for you on that basis.

The markets have had volatile spells, but year by year results have been positive since 2009 in the major averages1. We know that sooner or later, unpleasant times are going to come around.

Our principles may hope to offer some cover from overvalued markets. Avoiding stampedes and seeking the best bargains may or may not limit the damage—we have a mixed record, and no guarantees. With the uncertainties of the markets, and the impossibility of knowing the future, it is comforting to have principles by which to operate.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

1Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, S&P Dow Jones Indices. Retrieved May 21st, 2018.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Have You Heard About Unretirement?

© Can Stock Photo / photography33

Retirement is a fascinating topic. New ideas about it seem to pop up regularly.

For nearly all of human history, we worked while we could and stopped only when we couldn’t. The average person had no reasonable chance to accumulate capital on which to live.

But by the middle of the 20th century, things began to change. With Social Security and greater amounts of private savings, most people retired from work at some point. A new lifestyle was born.

Now, anecdotal evidence suggests that some people plan to work as long as they are able—at one thing or another. One client tells us of her plans to do something she enjoys. Another likes working at the state park. Consulting offers some a way to stay engaged, but on a less-active basis, either part-time or seasonal.

We also know people who simply never left their primary occupation after they reached normal retirement age. They enjoy the work and their coworkers, and could not see the point in quitting.

Obviously, this form of “unretirement” is not for everyone. Some go back to school, pick up new or old hobbies, volunteer for causes in which they believe, or spend time helping with family. Travel, reading… the list of things one might do in retirement is limited only by one’s imagination.

Although we each have our own ideas about what retirement means, we all have one thing in common. Our choices will be richer, more varied, and better if we have money. The option to continue working is a better situation than not having a choice because of financial necessity.

Clients, if you want an assessment about the money end of your retirement, please email us or call.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Made It! Age 62, Eligible for Social Security

© Can Stock Photo / AndreyPopov

Yes, at age 62 I could claim Social Security benefits. But I won’t.

After talking with you for decades about your Social Security benefits and the tactics you might use in claiming benefits, I’m looking at my own situation. There may be lessons in it for others, so we’ll talk about it here.

Suppose my benefit at age 62 would be $1,500. That’s $18,000 a year! Why wouldn’t I claim it?

1. If I wait until later, my benefit will be larger. That’s $2,128 monthly at full retirement age (66 and 4 months) or $2,856 at age 70.

2. If I claim now, since I want to keep on working, my benefits would be reduced by 50 cents for every dollar I earn over about $17,000.

3. My benefits would be partly taxable because I would have other income of over $23,000 for the year, basically. (It’s complicated—consult your own tax advisor.)

4. Flexibility: A decision to defer claiming Social Security can be changed at any time in the future, if circumstances change.

Since I want to work to age 92, my guess is that I won’t claim until age 70. But that’s just me. Under what circumstances would it make sense to claim at age 62?

A. If your spouse qualifies for benefits twice as large as yours, check into claiming on your record at age 62 and changing to a claim on your spouse’s record at full retirement age. This gives you some benefit from your earnings record, which might otherwise go unused.

B. If you have an impaired life expectancy, an earlier claim might make more sense. A person who plans to claim at age 70 but dies at 68 ends up collecting nothing.

Clients, this is intended to illustrate some of the basic considerations about Social Security strategy. You can learn more at www.SocialSecurity.gov, where you may sign up for a personal account and obtain personal benefit estimates at any time.

Please email us or call if you would like to discuss this at greater length.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific investment. Your results may vary.

Playing the Long Game

© Can Stock Photo / JamieWilson

The more we think about it, the more striking it is. We are talking about the connections between major decisions and strategies in other parts of life, and effective investing.

Lengthening your time horizon enables you to look past normal market ups and downs, and perhaps enjoy long term gains. On the other hand, a short-term focus leaves people with a choice of potentially safer but stagnant accounts, or day-trading. Our experience leads us to believe that playing the long game pays. No guarantees, of course.

Likewise, thinking about where you want to be seven or fourteen or twenty-one years from now gives you a framework that shapes the choices you make day to day. You may be more likely to make progress toward your major goals in life. Not playing the long game may hurt your chances.

Many have had the experience of enjoying some product or service that seemed to be priced at unbelievable bargain levels. When we were young, a wonderful barbecue ribs place opened up nearby. Great food, all you could eat, an unbelievable price. There was nothing else like it. Customers flocked to it—we went back again and again.

For a few months, that is. Until it closed without notice or warning. The proprietor had not been thinking about the long game. He knew it was important to deliver a great experience to large numbers of customers. But he wasn’t paying attention to the need to cover his overhead and make a decent return. A dining room full of happy customers, the short term indicator, was not enough.

As customers, we would have been better off to pay sustainable prices to keep the restauranteur in business. His place might have become one of those beloved institutions that last generations. Instead, we got bargains on good food for a few months—then it was over.

In our business, we often counsel people about investments or insurance they originally purchased from an agent or advisor prior to becoming our client. Often some level of confusion or frustration has crept into their understanding of what they have. We are always happy help clear things up.

But this is an object lesson to us about the importance of being there for you. We are always thinking about the long game for our enterprise, too. Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

A Rare Sighting: Interest Rates

© Can Stock Photo / khunaspix

Some thought that interest rates for savers had become extinct, gone for all time. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank shows that one year bank CD rates fell below 1% in 2009. Since then, we have often characterized short term interest rates as being zero-point-nothing. (Obviously, we exaggerated. But not by much.)

When rates were next to nothing, it did not matter much where you got them. But with rates moving up, it may pay to shop around.

The good news is, FDIC insured bank certificates of deposit are at the highest interest rates in years. U.S. Treasury securities are also at multi-year highs. We are making these kinds of opportunities available to you for your options. Interest rates vary from institution to institution; we have offerings from many national banks available through LPL Financial.

There are some size limitations, and some real advantages for larger accounts. FDIC insurance basically covers $250,000 per person, per institution. For example, by using four different issuing banks, we can obtain $1 million of coverage within a single LPL Financial account. See www.fdic.gov for more information.

People understand interest rates very well—higher is better than lower. But choosing maturity dates is a little trickier. When interest rates peaked in the 1980’s, many people were buying six month bank CD’s at 12 or 14%. At the same time, ten and twenty year U.S. treasury bonds were also paying double digit rates.

The CD owners saw rates fall at the end of six months. They could renew only at lower rates as market interest rates got cut in half, and cut in half again in the following years. But the long-term bond owner continued to reap the double-digit returns for many years.

On the other hand, people buying long term U.S. treasury bonds at low rates as recently as 2016 are now stuck with below-market rates since rates went up after the bonds were issued.

We can’t know the future, but we can talk to you about our thoughts and offerings in the interest rate arena. Clients, please email us or call if you would like to talk about this or any other topic.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

CD’s are FDIC Insured and offer a fixed rate of return if held to maturity.

Government bonds and Treasury bills may or may
not offer an equivalent degree of safety. Alternative investments to CDs may fluctuate with market conditions, so that upon sale
an investor may receive more or less than the original investment.

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.

Hello, Our Name Is 228Main.com

© Can Stock Photo / magann

A long time ago, we had a vision of what we wanted the business to be when it grew up. The kinds of things we do for you today are pretty much what we had in mind when we first got into business.

Naming the enterprise Leibman Financial Services was just good sense. That told who we are, and what we do. At first, there really was no ‘us,’ it was a one-man band. And people in the local market knew the name. When we moved to 228 Main Street in beautiful downtown Louisville, we started to grow a staff.

Then there were two people in shop, both named Leibman. My oldest brother Paul, a retired firefighter, helped me get the office ready for occupancy and became my first assistant. After that, my partner Cathy came in, and son Greg came in when Cathy retired. All named Leibman.

Now we have clients in twenty states. Many do business strictly from afar, by phone and email. Regardless of location, most of our clients receive most of their communications from us via http://www.228Main.com. Key members of our team have other last names.

As students of history, we do not seek change for the sake of change. Unchanging principles are a key part of what we are about. But we believe the name 228Main.com is a better reflection of the enterprise than Leibman Financial Services.

We are available 24/7 with a complete archive of our beliefs, principles, strategies, methods and aims. We put out daily commentary and features at the speed of light in various venues, available on your phones and screens at your convenience. We believe in the power of 21st century media to make us a straightforward source of better information on a more timely basis.

There are many ‘My Name’ Financial Services firms. There is only one 228Main.com.

Our top priority is the work we do with you and for you. Administrative tasks, if not pressing, are lower on the list. It will take us some time to fully convert to 228Main.com. We want you to be up on our plans.

Clients, if you would like to discuss this or anything else, please email us or call.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.