Gradually And Then Suddenly


In the novel The Sun Also Rises, author Ernest Hemingway gives us an insight into an interesting mechanism. One character asks another how his bankruptcy happened. The reply? “Two ways. Gradually and then suddenly.”

It seems to us that many things in the economy and markets happen the same two ways. Prices rise slowly at first, then gain momentum. Or a market stalls and declines slowly for a time, then falls swiftly. Or business activity, at the bottom of a recession, begins to tick higher, almost imperceptibly, until it takes off.

And in our own affairs, we see the same situation. We talked recently with a client in her middle 70’s, who noted she now had higher income than at any point in her working years. Compounding builds wealth only gradually for a long time, then (it seems) suddenly.

(People who are liquidating investment balances with overly large withdrawals see the same thing, in reverse. Balances decline gradually, then suddenly.)

An important part of our work is helping people visualize those inflection points for trends that are nearly imperceptible at first. When we first begin to save a small amount each payday, it is hard to see the fortune that might emerge over time. And when markets seem to be just slogging through the mud month after month, positive changes are tough to imagine. Our role is to help people see how this works.

The same mechanism applies to our work in researching investments. For example, there are sectors that have done well in recent years, with abundant liquidity in a period with easy monetary policy. But we have seen this movie before: liquidity dries up gradually, then suddenly. This specific issue is on our radar.

The challenge is that investment prices and economic indicators have a lot of volatility in the normal course of events, most of it meaningless. Most years, the major stock market indices rise about half of all days and fall about half of all days. Not everything is a trend happening gradually at first, then suddenly. Some of it is just noise. We work hard to sort it out.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.