It is that time of year! Prognosticators and pundits issue their forecasts for the year ahead. Wouldn’t it be nice to know what the future holds? Some forecasts are hedged, don’t really say much.
But our prediction is quite specific.
For those who have visited our offices, you know that we actually do have a crystal ball. It forecasts the direction of the stock market for the coming year. It does not say how far the market will go, but it always predicts the direction.
If you knew which way the stock market was going to go, could you make money investing?
Here’s the catch: our crystal ball has only been 74% accurate. So perhaps the question should be, “If you knew which way the stock market was going to go 74% of the time, could you make money investing?”
Without further ado, here is what our crystal ball says about the direction of the stock market for the year beginning January 1: it will go up.
Long-time observers will not be surprised. The crystal ball always says the market is going up. It has never predicted a down year. And checking back over the past hundred years, according to Standard & Poor’s, this prediction has been right 74% of the time.
We can’t know how well the track record will hold up, but we believe this presents a favorable backdrop against which to buy bargains, to avoid stampedes in the markets, and to seek to own the orchard for the fruit crop. In other words, to keep on keeping on, following our principles and plans and strategies. And remember the long haul sets its sights beyond the coming year.
It is tempting here to include a discussion of the economy, the strengths and weaknesses we perceive at this moment. We’ll leave that to people with more time on their hands.
But if your plans are evolving and deserve some attention in the new year, please email us or call.
Cheers to 2022, friends.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
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