The start of the New Year is a natural time to take stock—and appraise the opportunities and threats we investors may face.
Many Wall Street firms, market pundits, and fellow investment advisors like to weigh in on what lies ahead. Some are quite detailed about which sectors of the market may shine or fade, whether interest rates are going to go up or down, and what the economy or the markets or the Federal Reserve are likely to do.
Here at 228 Main, we have a slightly different approach. Because our time horizon extends beyond the months ahead, we are thinking about how the next seven, fourteen, or twenty-one years are going to play out.
Just a few of our Research Team’s theories about companies, industries, and society illustrate this expansive timeline:
- The leading player in a growing, fragmented industry is likely to continue consolidating the industry, gaining market share, and exploiting its economies of scale in the decades ahead.
- The cost of connectivity and computing power and data storage will continue to fall—as they have for decades past—for many years to come. More chips in more places connecting in more ways than ever before are going to have an impact on companies that facilitate or profit from these trends.
- In the future, we humans will still need places to live, ways to move around, and food to eat. Enterprises that meet those human needs will continue to see demand.
You may note that none of these depend on any of the details that most “2024 Outlook” reports focus on. We’re not all tied up in knots about the possibility of recession because we already know that the next one is coming (and so is the recovery which will inevitably follow.) And what will the Federal Reserve do? It literally does not matter, over our time horizon and yours.
The opportunity in 2024 is the same as always: to employ a longer time horizon than others, to be more patient with fluctuating markets, and to focus on the fundamentals of specific opportunities—not the frenzy about things outside our control.
And the threat in 2024 is also the same: the risk of getting caught up in short-sighted ways of looking at things, of following the crowd, of letting persistent pessimism into our brains.
In our opinion, it’s more fun our way!
All of us here at 228 Main want you to know that in 2024 we are going to continue with the values and principles that brought us to this moment, always seeking to refine our strategy and tactics as the future unfolds. That’s our “2024 Outlook.”
Please email or call, if there are things on your radar for 2024 that we should know about.
Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This material contains forward looking statements and projections; there is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass.
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