buying and selling

Every Share of Stock is Owned Every Day

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Every share of stock in existence is owned every single day by somebody. But the market news often refers to “all the selling on Wall Street” on a down day, or “the buying on Wall Street” on an up day. In reality, every share sold was also bought.

This came to mind when we recently read the words of a supposed expert: “investors need to be protected from themselves.” Since “you can’t change people” then the right prescription is a 60/40 or 40/60 mix of stocks and bonds, because otherwise people would sell out at a bad time – in a down market. But every share sold gets bought! So we cannot all be selling at the same time.

The idea that nearly everyone should give up the potential returns of long term stock ownership on a large fraction of their wealth because they won’t behave properly seems wrong-headed to to us. Our actual experience with you over the years says that many people are either born with good investing instincts, or can be trained to invest effectively.

We believe you can handle the truth. Long term investing requires living with volatility, the ups and downs. This is not appropriate for your short term needs, of course, for which you need stability.

In these times when bonds pay so little, insistence on a significant allocation to a sector where returns are likely to be historically poor for many years seems short-sighted. Particularly when used to shield true long term money from normal stock market action.

Let’s be clear: our philosophy is not for everyone. History suggests that about one year in four, broad stock market averages are likely to go down. If you can’t stand that with some fraction of your wealth, our approach is not the right one for you.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this, or anything else, please email us or call.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Every Share Sold is Bought

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We talk a lot about cycles, but there’s one truth to them that we could come right out and say more often: there are no ups without downs, no downs without ups. Night and day. Yin and yang. Buy and sell.

People sometimes lose sight of this reality, especially when talking about the waves of selling that engulf the markets from time to time, cratering prices. They might say, “Long term investing is all well and good, until the financial crisis comes and wipes out half your account—that happened to me.”

In the last crisis (2007–2009), the markets recovered and went on to post gains for many years. When I inquire whether their accounts have bounced back since then, some reply, “Of course not! Everybody had to sell out to save what was left!”

Life is too short for most arguments, isn’t it? We move on to other topics. But the fact remains: even on the worst days in the depths of the crisis, when the market was suffering large percentage losses, we believe every share sold was also bought. There are two sides to every transaction, a buyer and a seller. Not everybody “had” to sell out.

In the fall before the market bottom in March 2009, noted investor Warren Buffett wrote in The New York Times that the economy was likely to be larger—and company profits higher—ten and twenty years in the future.1 Therefore, he was buying.

We felt the same way.

But it may feel as if everybody is selling. In the crisis, one of you told us it was no longer possible to talk about the economy or markets at coffee in the mornings, because every single person there called you a fool for staying in or told you all your money would be lost. Another said the same thing about the Friday night dinner crowd—you felt lonely. But you persisted.

It is popular lore among financial advisors to presume that people are really not capable of investing effectively, pointing to behavioral economic studies. You know we have worked hard to find you, the exceptions: people who either have the native good sense to invest effectively or who can learn how to do it.

We believe that every share sold is also bought. We have a choice, which side of those transactions to be on. Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

Notes and References

1. Warren Buffett “Buy American,” The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html. Accessed: September 24, 2018.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing, including stocks, involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.