data points

Social Security: Facts and Feelings
photo shows a stack of Social Security cards

We have written from time to time about the role of Social Security retirement benefits in your plans and planning. I have new perspectives on the process, based on my new status: I’m a Social Security recipient! 

I’ve got two interesting and useful lessons from my process so far. 

First, in my separate discussions with two Social Security Administration employees, a piece of misinformation emerged. A written summary of a telephone appointment contained a major error, one that would have had negative consequences if left uncorrected. 

Second, working through the actual numbers, the arithmetic favoring one start date versus another was not nearly as compelling as I expected. Claiming benefits is often talked about in formulas, as if it’s always straightforward. Nonmathematical factors—and feelings—should therefore be given due weight, it turns out. 

Because of the first lesson, I feel even more committed to join each of you as you go through the actual application process. The information is murky, humans can make errors, we can lose pivotal details in the mix… But I would love to try to help make sure the process comes out as you would like it to. 

The second lesson underlines something we’ve always believed: your situation, your feelings, your preferences and vision for your cash flow needs absolutely must be part of the equation. Nobody knows the date going on their death certificate, so there is no way to “prove” in advance the “best” time to claim Social Security. 

What will work out best for you in your real life? That’s the question. 

Social Security is a significant fraction of retirement income for most people, so taking some time to examine and explore options well ahead of time makes sense. We’re here for that. If you are within a few years of retirement, keep watching this space: we will keep discussing what options are available in more detail and how we might approach the choices. 

Clients, if you are ready to talk about your retirement plans and planning, please email us or call. 

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Play the audio version of this post below:

Social Security: Facts and Feelings – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text is available at https://www.228Main.com/.

Clients, What Are You Seeing?

© Can Stock Photo / carenas1

Clients, you represent a vast treasure of human capital, educated in every field of study, experienced in working at everything from farming to pharmaceuticals. We are seeking your help and perspective.

The world is awash in facts and data… about short-term factors. But we invest time in trying to understand longer-term trends because they may have a major impact on the world and our work with you. Slower-moving trends and concepts can be more difficult to spot, so here’s how you can help us help you with two goals.

Finding bargains. Hidden trends may produce mispriced investments. An example: our belief that the next energy revolution, solar plus batteries, will change the world. We may see many years of increased demand for the materials that go into solar cells and batteries and electrical equipment. Also, pipelines and conventional electricity generation might have less activity than anticipated. No guarantees on any of this, of course. But here we are, seeking to understand more about the future—as always:

• What is the coming thing in your area? What is just over the horizon but cannot yet be seen?
• What in today’s world is going away, but few have noticed yet?

Avoiding hype. Obvious trends with investment market implications may get overplayed, again producing mispriced investments. The tech boom of 1999–2000 is a good example. Some said the internet would change everything. It did. But internet-related stocks fell dramatically even as the story came true. So talk to us about what you see in your areas of interest:

• What is everybody talking about today that may be overhyped? What do you see that others don’t?

Clients, please comment, email, or call to talk about these topics or anything else. We look forward to learning to see what you see.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Connect the Dots

© Can Stock Photo / bradcalkins

Do you remember the “connect the dots” pictures for children? By drawing lines from one dot to the next, the players discover that a coherent picture emerges from a seemingly disorganized collection of dots on the page.

Likewise, our work involves creating a picture that makes sense out of all the things going on in the world. In our version, though, there’s no handy numbering guide to draw our attention to the relevant dots.

Instead there seems to be an infinite number of dots in the world. So our first task is to do some sorting. For example, a vast mass of information is available about the day-to-day movement of the stock market. We can sort out any dots that fit into the category “the market goes up and down”—and then discard them. They are not pertinent for long-term investors.

Time horizon plays a large role in sorting as well. There is a wealth of opinions about nearly any investment alternative. A short-term technical analyst may have an opinion that is useful to a day trader but worthless to investors who are thinking in terms of years or decades.

But our work involves more than sorting out what to ignore. We frequently need to dig deeper—to read SEC filings, to research what happened in prior cycles years ago, and to look up many years of operating results. In other words, we still have to be able to find some of the specific dots we know are needed to complete the picture.

For example, we believe that inflation in the next few years will exceed consensus expectations. There is little information from the past decade supporting this view, in our opinion, but as we dig deeper, the patterns going back many decades suggest we may have it right. (No guarantees.)

Another way of saying all of this is that perspective, context, and background matter as we try to connect the dots. We are fortunate to have time to think deeply—and clients who value our methods and our work are a big plus. Together, we’ll create the picture.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else on your agenda, please email us or call.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.