financial stability

Optional Thinking

© Can Stock Photo / lisafx

Readers know we believe there are those financial arrangements that maintain stability and those that may garner long-term investment returns. But anything that promises both stability and high returns is not likely to work out that way.

The uncomfortable truth is, we must live with volatility in order to have a chance at market returns. Short-term market action cannot be reliably forecast, nor profitably traded, in our opinion.

Yet market values can be volatile. Imagine an account of $500,000: a 20% drop would shrink it to $400,000, while a 20% gain would grow it to $600,000. How do people stand it?

First, long-term clients tend to take the long view. If that $500,000 account started as a $200,000 account years ago, the owners remember where they’ve been. That original investment is their anchor: any value above $200,000 represents a gain from that beginning value. (We are talking about the effects of time and compounding, not claiming any unusual investment results.)

Second, the long view helps clients understand that volatility is not risk. Put another way, as we’ve written before, a short-term drop does not necessarily represent a loss. How should we view that $500,000 value dropping to $400,000, in the long view? Relative to the original $200,000, it’s still a gain. Worrying about drops as if they are losses is optional for people who are investing for many years or decades down the road.

Third, even while staying the course over the long haul is important, strategies need to address short-term needs. For those who are living on their capital, knowing where the cash is going to come from is vitally important. With secure cash flow, it is easier to live with the ups and downs in account values. We call this pursuit of opportunity “owning the orchard for the fruit crop.”

This perspective requires a certain confidence that we will stumble through any problems and likely come out of whatever troubles have arisen. Optimism is sound policy, for if we are going back to the Stone Age, it won’t matter what is in your portfolio anyway.

Clients, if you would like to talk about these ideas or any other, please email us or call.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation. Your results will vary. The hypothetical rates of return used do not reflect the deduction of fees and charges inherent to investing.


Money in the Bank

© Can Stock Photo Inc. / turk12

We have learned over the years that money in the bank is useful and worthwhile for a variety of reasons. It helps us deal with emergencies and take advantage of opportunities. The confidence that comes from having that certain amount safe and sound is perhaps the best thing about it.

With the right amount of money in the bank, people may have more tolerance to the ups and downs of longer-term investments. With today’s low returns on safe, liquid investments, for some living with volatility is the only way to have a chance at decent returns over time. (We are using ‘money in the bank’ as a term to include a variety of conservative investments likely to maintain value.)

As with so many things, there is a gap between how people usually think of their money and how the financial industry talks about it. For example, when you think about the balance you need to have in order to sleep comfortably, you think in terms of a dollar amount. It might be $2,000 or $200,000 or some other number—a matter of circumstances and personal preference.

But the financial industry talks about it in terms of percentages. For example, a blend of 80% stocks and 20% conservative, or 60/40, or 40/60. We see things a little differently. Like Warren Buffett, we believe a temporary dip is not a loss, we are optimistic about the long term, and we know that tolerating volatility is crucial to successful investing. But you still need to sleep comfortably at night, and you still need those advantages that come from having money in the bank.

Our proposal: we will be working with you in the weeks and months ahead to sort out how much if any of the funds entrusted to us should be devoted to capital preservation first. We won’t be talking about percentages like 80/20 or 60/40; we’ll be looking to help you ascertain that dollar amount in conservative investments that strive to leave you feeling comfortable.

This is slightly harder than it sounds, since the trade-off for more stability is less growth potential over time. But we are here to work you through these issues. Write or call if you would like to discuss your situation in detail, or have other questions about this.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

There is no assurance that these techniques are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes.