market downturn

The Weirdest Recession Ever?
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It’s been months, but one of the biggest words from 2022 is still in the air: recession.

Are we headed into a recession?

Are we currently in a recession?

Are we already recovering from a brief, sort-of recession?

Depending on how you want to answer, any of these might be true. The definitions vary, so the answers do too.

The most common definition is based on multiple quarters of falling gross domestic product—the sum of all national economic activity. With GDP numbers declining slightly throughout the first half of the year, we technically found ourselves in a recession.

But the next important figure economists look at to determine recessions is unemployment, which remains near 50-year average lows. So by that measure, the economy is still sizzling!

Through the lens of the stock market, we again find conflicting answers. For most of the statements investors received in 2022, many holdings were down. But at the same time, many of those companies were reporting record earnings. According to stock prices, we are in a recession; according to stock earnings, we are still in a growth cycle.

So how can investors make informed decisions, when even economists struggle to agree on the nature of a recession?

Here, we believe taking the long view is instructive: we cannot say with full certainty whether we are currently in a recession, nor whether we will be in a recession a month or two from now. But we can know with absolute certainty that there will be recessions in the future—which also means that recoveries are still on the horizon, too. Night, day. Recession, recovery.

We know that the economy is cyclical. It has its upturns and downturns. But if you are investing for the decades ahead—maybe your future retirement or for a legacy for your children and through generations—your concern should not be on what the economy is doing today, next quarter, or even next year.

Your focus should be on trying to grow the bucket the best we can for the long haul.

We don’t ignore the day-to-day action, of course. But in good times and bad, we allow ourselves to be guided by simple, timeless principles. We focus on avoiding market stampedes and looking for the best bargains we can find. And these principles, we believe, are equally important whether we are in the depths of recession or a roaring expansion.

The talking heads can keep on debating whether we are in a “real” recession or not. That is what they are paid to do, after all. Meanwhile, we are going to keep on doing what we are paid to do: trying to grow the bucket, find opportunities, tweak portfolios.

Feel free to drop in or give us a call if you’d like to talk about this, or anything else.

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Play the audio version of this post below:

The Weirdest Recession Ever? – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text can be found at https://www.228Main.com/.

Silver Lining Playbook

© Can Stock Photo / AnglianArt

Recent market action featured normal stock market volatility in a remarkably compressed time period. (We all know which direction the volatility took us, don’t we?)

Some clients see a silver lining in stock market downturns. They are able to do Roth IRA conversions on a more favorable basis. These transactions are taxed on the value transferred from traditional IRA or rollover accounts into Roth IRA accounts.

Think about $60,000 invested that temporarily declines to $50,000 before bouncing back to $60,000. If the conversion happens at the low point, tax is paid on $50,000 but the Roth ends up with $60,000 of assets. This is a way to build after-tax wealth over the long term. If the rules are followed, gains in the Roth are never taxed, even when withdrawn.

By intentionally selecting the specific holdings with the most potential to snap back, an additional edge may be gained. (Of course, we have no guarantees on the selections we make.)

Many of you are looking at the lowest tax brackets in years, due to recent tax reform, changes that are scheduled to disappear in the years ahead. And income tax rates may rise anyway, as the government seeks to deal with record borrowing and national debt.

So the silver lining in the stock market decline is a pair of potential advantages in Roth IRA conversions: we may be converting assets at a temporary market value discount, taxed at temporarily low tax rates.

We have a crystal ball. It does not work. We could be wrong about future tax rates, and nobody knows their own specific future tax situation. And there is no guarantee that depressed investments rise again. We just do the best we can with what we know.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

Traditional IRA account owners should consider the tax ramifications, age and income restrictions in regards to executing a conversion from a Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. The converted amount is generally subject to income taxation.