Even heroes get knocked down a time or two when fighting their monsters. There may be a couple of bumps in the road, but what good plot doesn’t have some conflict? With our passions in mind, a little bit of perseverance, and a good plan, we all get to be the hero of our own story.
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It might help to think about financial goals like a line of dominoes. Only one domino needs to fall at first, and the momentum will build. We don’t have to do it all at once 🙏
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Clients, it’s normal to feel this way: suddenly a change is upon us, and we feel like there’s more to do than we bargained for. For some, it can feel like waking up to a never-ending list.
I’ve heard it from young folks, just starting out. Once they become aware of the state of their finances, it can be both empowering and overwhelming. It starts to seem impossible to accomplish everything that stretches out ahead of them: big purchases like houses or degrees, big goals like travel or retirement, and all the unexpected stuff in between? Daunting.
Other parts of life can prompt a sense of being overwhelmed, too, like the passing of a partner, a big move for a parent. It can feel like there’s no way to do it all.
Things are not as they seem, though. No one can do it all… at once. That’s the key: nobody can do it all at once.
We’ve talked about this idea before in terms of the many hats we wear in life. Perhaps a better way to think of financial goals, in particular, is dominoes: only one domino needs to fall at once, but the momentum means that each one affects the next. Starting the chain reaction takes the most energy. The rest of it builds on itself.
Think about the prelude to most people’s spending and investing goals: the emergency fund. Once you’ve got this resource in place, you move onto the next goal. But you’re not starting all over from scratch for the next goal. It’s the opposite, because now you have a firmer, better foundation to build on. You’re already on your way with more freedom than before!
Meaningful goals compound. They become a resource in themselves.
Clients, what’s next for you? Where does it fit in the big scheme? Reach out, anytime.
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Play the audio version of this post below:
“Avoiding stampedes” may be the simplest and most straightforward of our three fundamental principles of investing. Let’s talk about what it means.
In our view, a stampede in the markets has two features: large volumes of money changing hands, and irrational pricing. Information, evidence and indications about money flows are readily available. The assessment of pricing is necessarily more subjective.
At the time, many believe that prices make sense—or they would not be where they are. Technology and internet stocks in early 2000, homes in 2007, and commodities in 2011 all fit that pattern. At the peak, some true believers thought there was significant room for further increases. Only with the benefit of hindsight is it obvious that things were out of whack.
These examples are all about stampedes into a sector. Money also stampedes out of things at times, as we know. Stocks during the last financial crisis and high yield energy bonds near the bottom in oil prices in early 2016 are prime examples.
You may recognize a pattern. The habit of avoiding stampedes is a contrarian approach to investing—going against the crowd. If everybody else is doing it, we probably don’t want to.
In fact, if everybody else is doing one thing, we may seek to do the opposite.
Behavioral economics lends support to our practice, in our opinion. Much work in that field purports to show that most people do the wrong thing at the wrong time, thereby hurting their returns. Doing better than average would seem to require doing the opposite of what most people do.
(Of course, no method or system or theory is guaranteed to work, or even to perform the same in the future as it has in the past. And putting a theory into practice may be difficult to do.)
In practice, being a contrarian can be lonely. The crowd at the diner is unlikely to endorse doing what nobody else seems to be doing. We don’t care—we are striving to make investment returns, not please the crowd.
Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
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