short sightedness

Short Cuts

© Can Stock Photo / BackyardProduct

When I was a child, a friend and I were off on some adventure or other. We arrived back at his home quite a bit later than expected. His mother was waiting, and demanded an explanation. My friend’s answer was Marx Brothers-quality dialogue: “We took a short-cut!”

His mother seemed to think that a short cut ought to reduce travel time, not increase it.

Some financial professionals and investment advisors take a very similar short cut. They adopt the view that it is either not possible to do better than the market averages, or not worth the effort of trying.

The reasons sound plausible, but may not stand up under examination. Human nature often encourages counterproductive behavior. We believe untrained human nature is a poor guide to investing; training and education may improve investor behavior, which may improve investment results. But the short-cutters seem to pander to human nature in its untrained state.

Active investment managers typically underperform the market averages, and this is often cited as evidence “it is too hard to beat the market.” What many fail to see is that active managers have human beings as customers, so may include popular investments and avoid out-of-favor sectors in order to draw more funds to manage. These tactics, of course, may be detrimental to actual investment results.

So that human nature thing enters into that argument, as well.

Life is straightforward for the short-cutters. They typically avoid the hard work of researching specific investment opportunities; they spend no time reading SEC filings, press releases, and conference call transcripts. They have no reason to try to understand the role of emotion driving money into different market sectors.

Hey, it is a free country and we are glad it is. Each person is entitled to his or her own opinion; investors are free to use or ignore any advice or advisors.

The short-cutters have become very popular. At the same time, with your help, our business has continued to grow and prosper. We do not mind the existence of short-cutters; they may actually reduce the competition for favorable opportunities. But we do want you to understand what we are talking about, and why.

If you have questions or comments on how this may apply to your situation, please write or call.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Two Ideas About Time

© Can Stock Photo / Klementiev

Two ideas about time affect our plans and planning when it comes to investing. There is conflict between these ideas, so we need to examine them more closely.

The concept of compounding wealth over time is alluring and powerful. Something that doubles every eight years would be sixteen times the money in thirty-two years!

What does thirty-two years mean in the context of planning for a lifetime? It is the distance between age 30 and when people begin to retire. Of two people at age 60, one of them might reasonably expect to be alive thirty-two years later. You may think that thirty-two years sounds like a very, very long time. But 62 year olds will tell you that age 30 seems like yesterday. Thirty-two years clearly is a pertinent time frame for life planning.

This is key because long time horizons are generally tied to long term investment results.

The other idea about time rests in one of the ultimate truths of our existence. We may think about the past, or plan for the future, but where we live each second is RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW! The survival of the human species in earlier ages probably required us to be vigilant of potential threats and lurking dangers at all times. There was nothing to be gained by thinking about tomorrow if a lion was going to eat you today.

So human nature has a bias toward focusing on the present. This manifests itself in unhelpful ways in modern society. We tend to think that current trends or conditions will persist—even when they are unsustainable. Some of us seem to believe there will always be time later to take care of longer-term priorities or goals. We have trouble picturing future changes.

The focus on the present also may explain why so many lack the context and background that history can provide. We have heard people say “This has never happened before” about many things that are a recurring feature of our history. By not understanding challenges overcome in the past, today’s problems may trigger an unwarranted sense of danger.

The focus on the present is in conflict with the idea of compounding wealth over time. Our role is to try to make sure that people have what they need for the present, have a cushion for emergencies, and keep a long term focus for their long term investments.

In other words, balance is key. Call or write if you would like to talk about the balance in your plans and planning.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.