What had been a $4 stock recently ran up to over $400. Although we heard a hundred different ideas about what the episode meant, we can almost certainly understand that no, the company did not actually become a hundred times more valuable.
We do not know the future, so I can’t tell you that buying after it made headlines is going to turn out poorly, but (in my opinion) you’d have far better odds at an actual casino.
Let’s think about that for a second. Have you ever put a little money on something that had the chance to turn out really big? A long shot at the race track, a chance on a huge lottery payout, or stock in a company that might make a lot of money if it doesn’t go broke?
Our business in here is sound investing, not gambling or speculating, though I myself have considered the odds and laid my money down a time or two.
But this recent example buzzing in the news isn’t like that. It’s one of these situations where lots of people get caught up in something that has the same practical meaning as flushing money down the toilet.
It would be better to invest wisely, spend well, and plan for the long haul. For some, chasing those big chances can be fun in moderation. But we don’t advise it become a daily activity.
Jumping into something with even worse odds than those big chances? We wouldn’t count on anything longer than a long shot.
Clients, when you have questions or concerns, please reach out.
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One of our key tasks on your behalf is the search for bargains. Seeking the best bargains is one of our fundamental investment principles.
When we spot an idea, product or trend that is likely to become more prevalent or profitable in the future, we end up trying to figure out whether that knowledge can be effectively put into client portfolios. In other words, is it investable?
To invest is to put money into something in which you have a reasonable expectation of a return. This is different than speculating, which involves a high risk of large losses or large gains. Last and least, there are many ways to simply flush money down the toilet.
For example, without debating the merits, medical and other uses of marijuana seem increasingly likely to proliferate. But we believe the political risks inherent in federal government policy are so high that it is speculating at best—not investing.
When we look at specific marijuana securities, most of the buzz is about penny stocks. These, in turn, look to us to be more in the “down the toilet” category than either an investment or a speculation. So we have concluded that the proliferation of marijuana is not investable.
Another facet of investability has to do with price. A trend that everyone seems to be talking about is likely already reflected in the price of investments, leaving little room for gains. “What everyone knows usually isn’t worth knowing,” as the saying goes.
By 1999, everyone knew the internet was going to change how we live and work. The internet did indeed transform life in many ways. But related investments were trading at extremely high valuations, resulting in losses to investors in subsequent years.
We are selective—one might say picky—about the things in which we choose to invest. Our standard of investability is high. We sometimes talk to people who are enthusiastic about an idea that sounds exciting, but is not investable. No matter how good an idea is, if we cannot get it into your portfolio on an efficient basis, it is not investable.
Clients, for examples of things we believe are investable, look at your statements (or positions in LPL AccountView). If you wish to discuss this or anything else, please email us or call.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.
All investing, including stocks involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.
Over the past few months, there has been a lot of hay made in the press about “alternative facts.” The term is a sarcastic euphemism; when something is labeled an alternative fact, the clear implication is that it is not a fact at all.
There is a certain class of investments which are collectively called “alternative investments.” This term is unrelated to the term “alternative fact”, but the similarities are undeniable.
Traditional investments are based on the notion of putting your money to work in order to generate more money. When you invest in a company’s stock, you are buying a piece of a going concern that generates revenue. When you invest in bonds, you are buying a debt obligation that bears interest. Even if you are just holding cash reserves, when you leave your cash with a bank, they are paying you interest to hold onto your money. In today’s interest rate environment you are probably earning close to nothing, but at least in theory there is some return on cash.
This is not to say that traditional investments are not without risks. You are not guaranteed to break even, let alone make money—companies may go broke, leaving stocks and bonds at a fraction of their former value. But you still have the hope that your money can grow into more money over time.
“Alternative investments” is a very large category which encompasses a wide range of assets. The only common element is that they do not fall into traditional investment categories such as stocks and bonds, and in many cases, arguably do not qualify as investments in the traditional sense at all.
Commodities are one form of alternative investment. These are gold, silver, oil, corn, and so on—actual, physical products, not the companies that produce them. If you buy a bar of gold, all you will ever have is a bar of gold. It will never turn into two bars of gold. If you are lucky, maybe you can sell it to someone for more than you paid for it. But that is speculation, not investment.
Derivatives contracts are another type of alternative investment. A derivative’s value is based on (“derived from”) the value of another asset, such as a stock or commodity. When you buy options to purchase a company’s stock, you are making a bet that the company will be successful, just like owning stock. However, stock options tend to have a very short time horizon. You are speculating on short term price fluctuations, not really investing in a company’s long term growth.
Undoubtedly some people make good money speculating on alternative investments. As a result, some portfolio managers believe in buying small slices of alternative investments for everyone in case they happen to outperform traditional investments. Our response: nuts! We want to build an orchard big enough to live off the fruit crop. We have no interest in owning a smaller orchard and trying to make up the difference buying and selling fruit with other fruit speculators.
Clients, if you want to talk about your portfolio, please call or email. But if someone is trying to sell you “alternative investments”, you should perhaps treat them with the same skepticism you’d give to someone pitching “alternative facts.”
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.
The fast price swings in commodities and currencies will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.