We have all had the experience of getting interrupted by a hiccup. Do they serve any useful purpose? A momentary dislocation, each spasm passes quickly.
Over the course of our lives as investors, we similarly experience a spasm through our portfolios from time to time. We feel this way about the year so far. Unlike hiccups, which sometimes feel like they come out of nowhere, in this case we can clearly spot some of the causes:
• Your portfolios are generally overweight in select natural resource holdings, a sector that may do better or worse than the major market averages in the short run. So far this year? They haven’t been great.
• We began adding overseas equity exposure a while back, as we saw better bargains emerging after a decade of underperformance. These bargains have become even better bargains, which is another way of saying they haven’t been great either.
• In recent years, cyclical holdings have found a home in our shop. Many of these have been affected by trade war talk and tariffs.
At the start of the year, we were focused on the years and decades ahead, as always. We prefer up years to down years, of course. But the best time frame for effective investing is one measured over many years. That is why we see this year so far as a hiccup—in the grand scheme of things, a momentary dislocation that will pass.
Paradoxically, those things that hold us back in the short run are often the things that provide above-average results in following periods. It has happened before; it will happen again. We counsel patience with our current holdings.
Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us, or call.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.