Can I Afford to Retire?

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Perhaps the biggest financial issue people try to understand is their own retirement situation. Will you have enough cash flow to live as you would like in retirement? Will you be able to retire at an acceptable age? Are you on track to retire when you want to?

We use a straightforward process to help people answer these questions. It isn’t rocket science, but it does take some thought. Our process has some fine points, but the basics are simple:

First, how much cash coming in every month will it take for you to feel like you have what you need?

Second, what will your sources of monthly income in retirement add up to? We are talking about Social Security or Railroad Retirement, pensions, rent, and other recurring monthly payments. This step does not include money from your portfolios or 401(k) type accounts.

Third, what is the monthly gap between your needs in Step One and your sources from Step Two?

Fourth, multiply that monthly gap from Step Three by twelve to get the annual shortfall. Then multiply that by twenty to understand how much permanent lump sum capital you will need in order to retire. For example, if you are short $18,000 per year, you’ll need $360,000 (which is $18,000 times twenty).

We like to estimate that you can probably earn about 5% of your investment capital each year in income and gains. So if you have capital equal to twenty times your desired income, you can potentially afford to take out 5% (one-twentieth) per year without having to spend down your capital.

About those fine points: we factor in the rising cost of living, we make estimates about future changes in Social Security and other monthly benefits, we make assumptions about rates of return. There are no guarantees on any of these things. But it always pays to take your best shot at it and plan accordingly. As retirement gets closer, your estimates will get better and better.

There are other factors as well. Sometimes spouses do not retire at the same time. Often there are plans to change residences or move. Retirement may trigger a lump sum purchase of a boat, RV, or second home. We strive to understand all the pieces of your puzzle, and plan for your specific objectives.

Clients, if we may help you improve your understanding of your retirement plans and planning, please email us or call. We love to work on this topic.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation. Your results will vary. The hypothetical rates of return used do not reflect the deduction of fees and charges inherent to investing.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.