There’s plenty about 2020 that is disorienting. Some parts of the picture seem to be going okay: spending is on the rise again, and some industries are seeing fresh growth and new opportunities this year.
Other indicators are worrying. Retail bankruptcies are piling up, and many small businesses are just hanging on.
What’s the deal? It’s head-spinning to hold all the pieces together… but they are all part of one economic picture, right?
We recently heard an analogy from Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Brown told Planet Money to picture a person walking a dog, “walking upright at a moderate pace, nothing terribly exciting.”
And then there’s the dog. He says, “Then let your eyes pan down a little bit. Look at the dog. … It’s chasing birds. It’s digging up clumps of mud. It’s running at trees. It’s peeing all over the place.”
The picture feels split, but Brown explains that the dog is the stock market; the person is the economy. They are parts of the same picture. The dog can be bouncing all over, but it doesn’t mean the person is too.
The market is reflecting the twists and turns, the frenzy of opportunities and announcements and shifts in focus. The economy as a whole, however, is on a promising course. While the country has not weathered this specific set of challenges before, it has come through others. Times like these bring pain and innovation.
The economic picture is a complex one, but it doesn’t have to be totally overwhelming. The savings and cash we need, long-term goals, and a little planning: that’s how we stay the course. The dog can bark all it wants.
Clients, when you want to talk about this or anything else, write or call.
The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.