Parts of the Picture

photo shows small white and orange dog running through grass

There’s plenty about 2020 that is disorienting. Some parts of the picture seem to be going okay: spending is on the rise again, and some industries are seeing fresh growth and new opportunities this year.

Other indicators are worrying. Retail bankruptcies are piling up, and many small businesses are just hanging on.

What’s the deal? It’s head-spinning to hold all the pieces together… but they are all part of one economic picture, right?

We recently heard an analogy from Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management. Brown told Planet Money to picture a person walking a dog, “walking upright at a moderate pace, nothing terribly exciting.”

And then there’s the dog. He says, “Then let your eyes pan down a little bit. Look at the dog. … It’s chasing birds. It’s digging up clumps of mud. It’s running at trees. It’s peeing all over the place.”

The picture feels split, but Brown explains that the dog is the stock market; the person is the economy. They are parts of the same picture. The dog can be bouncing all over, but it doesn’t mean the person is too.

The market is reflecting the twists and turns, the frenzy of opportunities and announcements and shifts in focus. The economy as a whole, however, is on a promising course. While the country has not weathered this specific set of challenges before, it has come through others. Times like these bring pain and innovation.

The economic picture is a complex one, but it doesn’t have to be totally overwhelming. The savings and cash we need, long-term goals, and a little planning: that’s how we stay the course. The dog can bark all it wants.

Clients, when you want to talk about this or anything else, write or call.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

It’s a Whole New Ballgame!

© Can Stock Photo / eric1513

When a team came from behind to forge a tie in the course of a game, a certain sportscaster in the last century would exclaim “It’s a whole new ball game!”

Games begin tied, zero to zero. So in a sense, a game that becomes tied in mid-course is a new game. We get the same sensation from the start of a new year. The coming of the new year is a good time to reflect on the year just ending, and to think ahead about the year to come.

2018 was interesting, to say the least.

• From a high point in January, the market became choppy and volatile. Some of the bargains we own got cheaper. Account values shrank over the course of the year.
• Some corporate earnings and economic indicators were strong, and interest rates rose.
• LPL Financial, our institutional broker dealer, used its increasing scale to reduce our overhead and improve the technology with which we serve you.
• We added staff at 228 Main, and started projects that will improve things in the years ahead.

2019 awaits.

• We will work to uncover potential opportunities as the economic cycle unfolds, and continue to monitor our holdings on a regular basis.
• Sorting out how to house a growing business in the years ahead will be a bigger issue as time goes on.
• We will continue to add systems and understudies to improve the sustainability and durability of the business. (I still want to work to age 92, after all.)

Your own look back and look ahead are about your own challenges and opportunities. Clients, if you would like to talk about those, please email us or call.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.