airline stocks

YOU DON’T GET WHAT YOU GIVE
photo shows two rocks balanced on a flat rock on top of a triangular rock with water in the background

We’re not pessimists, by any stretch, so we’ll apologize now for the “gotcha” headline. But do you always get what you give? No, you don’t.

When you invest a dollar, it rarely works out such that you make only a dollar or lose only a dollar. Returns aren’t symmetrical: it’s not one dollar in, one dollar out. It could be one dollar in… and many dollars out. Or pennies. No guarantees.

Our core investing philosophy guides us toward those investments that are likely to stay robust and provide healthy returns for the long haul. However, there is room in some accounts to consider more speculative investments from time to time.

Take Silicon Valley, for example, which is full of disruptive visionaries trying to turn the auto industry upside down. Maybe they are geniuses, and maybe not so much: they could go broke in the blink of an eye. But if an upstart company can capture 3% of the new vehicle market over the next few years, the payoff may be considerable. That could be an opportunity.

As another example, some time ago we invested in a flyer—a fairly risky company at the time—because we figured we might make five times our money if it worked out, and we would only lose one time our money if it didn’t. There were no guarantees either way, but the potential reward dwarfed the potential cost.

There are examples that ought to be cautionary tales, times when the potential reward is so tiny compared to the potential cost. Consider the choice of racing across the train tracks as the arms start coming down. Potential reward? You could save five minutes. Potential cost? The whole rest of your life.

Not worth it.

We can’t know the future, and we are always dealing with uncertainty. But we can think about the possibilities and work to understand the potential outcomes. This applies to investing and life: it’s why we took that flyer, and it’s why we do the practically free things that might help us live longer, healthier, happier lives.

Do you always get what you give? No, but it’s easier to find our opportunities when we understand the consequences.

Clients, when you’d like to talk about this or anything else, please write or call.

Spring 2017 Market Themes

© Can Stock Photo / photoslb

We look for promising investments by studying opportunities in detail, reading annual reports, SEC filings, analyst commentary, and doing our own arithmetic. Potential gains live in the gap between the unfolding reality and consensus expectations. The outcome of this study and thought is a list of investments we would like to own.

Although we look at individual companies, we often find themes in our list. This makes sense when you consider that undervalued companies are often found in unpopular industries.

Last fall we wrote about three of our market themes. Biotechnology companies, the evolution of the automobile, and natural resources continue to figure into our thinking. Other themes have emerged.

Consolidation has fundamentally changed the dynamics of the airline industry. It used to be that fierce waves of competition caused price cutting, which led to poor financial results and even bankruptcies. But there are not twenty players, or even ten any more. Consolidation and liquidation has reduced the number of major competitors to four.

The four biggies compete with each other, but more gently. Each knows that lower growth ambitions and stable pricing may lead to greater profits than higher growth ambitions and lower prices. This idea of a pricing oligopoly seems to explain the behavior of the airlines, which are booking record profits. We believe the market has not awoken to the new dynamics, and undervalues the stocks. We may be wrong.

The European equity markets have had one problem after another for more than a decade. An index of major blue chip stocks, the Eurostoxx 50, is lower than it was ten years ago. Meanwhile in the US, major averages have doubled. Dividend yields and prices are more favorable “over there.” So we have begun to include European equity exposure in portfolios.

The Buy List of thirty-some holdings reflects these themes and other opportunities we believe to be attractive. There are no guarantees on any of them. We can tell you we are excited about the prospects. If you would like to discuss your holdings or situation in detail, please write or call.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Value investments can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time.

Because of their narrow focus, sector investing will be subject to greater volatility than investing more broadly across many sectors and companies.