purchasing power

If I Had a Million Dollars…
photo shows a road through a wooded area with "RETIREMENT" painted in yellow on the pavement

It’s a premise we’ve heard in songs and any number of written works. “If I had a million dollars…” It’s a great prompt—sometimes serious, sometimes humorous. I’ve decided to take a crack at my own entry into the million-dollar discussion!

I had the privilege recently of meeting a young person who shared their goal of retiring at age 30. I was struck by the ambition, shared by many in the FIRE movement: its mantra is “Financial Independence, Retire Early.” So here I am thinking about a million dollars. What I have to say is all about the numbers. Money and numbers are how we fund the life in which we act out our values, plans, and dreams.

Wondering what it takes to retire early? It’s not a universal formula, but we can take the idea of accumulating a million dollars of invested capital as a decent proxy. In this scenario, one has to be able to imagine someday living on, say, a $50,000 a year. But it also requires a willingness to endure the ups and downs of ownership. They are just part of any long ride in the markets. (And keep in mind it would take a far bigger number to retire on today’s low interest rates on stable forms of money!)

Two factors really affect the path to retirement. One is how we spend and earn along the way; the other is inflation.

First, because financial independence is all about our resources exceeding our needs—income exceeding outflow—reducing your needs is one way to get there sooner. The other side of the coin is finding ways to maximize your human capital in these working years, getting paid more for your labor. So the first best investment might be in yourself to improve your earning power. Fewer expenses, more income—more money to invest for retirement.

Second, inflation will affect how the path to retirement unfolds. Inflation risk is the extent to which our money loses purchasing power over time, so we have to take that into account as we plan for our future spending in retirement.

So let’s get back to the numbers. How much money would we need to invest each year in order to have $50,000 (in today’s dollars) as annual income in the future?

Let’s assume 3% inflation and 9% investment returns—neither of which is guaranteed—and 5% annual withdrawals in retirement. Starting from zero, we could be…

  • retiring in 7 years by investing $129,782 annually ($10,815 monthly)
  • retiring in 15 years by investing $51,529 annually ($4,294 monthly)
  • retiring in 25 years by investing $23,999 annually ($2,000 monthly)
  • retiring in 35 years by investing $14,349 annually ($1,196 monthly)
  • retiring In 45 years by investing $6,982 annually ($582 monthly)

These numbers are just one way to slice it. If you could live in retirement on $25,000 of today’s dollars a year, for example, take those amounts above and cut them in half. If you would want $100,000 a year, then double the figures.

We don’t know the future, and these calculations are not the future. But it’s a place to start toward a plan.

Clients, if you want to sort out your situation—or help a younger person get started—email us or call.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

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If I Had a Million Dollars… – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

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Does Money Go Stale?
photo shows various jars full of noodles, rice, and other food goods

An old proverb suggests “nothing ventured, nothing gained.” It seems like a great tagline for an action movie, huh? Maybe some adventurers go chasing lost treasure, a tale of bravery and throwing caution to the wind and winning it all!

Okay, so our work isn’t always quite that exciting, but it is thrilling to us. And we believe “nothing ventured, nothing gained” has a story to tell about our financial adventures.

Some of us still know folks who feel best with their money in cash under the (literal!) mattress. We need to know where our cash is coming from, but when we say that, we mean that we need enough liquid resources available to cover what we need to cover in the shortest term. It does not need to come from the mattress, the pantry, or the piggy bank.

It’s more important than that, though. When we leave money sitting, we are letting its power go to waste. It’s just like letting an ingredient go stale: the flavor and the potential power are gone, and then it has less utility than it had when you first got it.

This is also part of what people mean when they say “avoid leaving money on the table.” You let it sit, you forfeit some of its power. Keeping it close doesn’t necessarily keep it safe. Inflation, time, and other forces will do their work whether your money gets out in the world or not.

“Nothing ventured, nothing gained”? It makes a certain sense. No guarantees, but we’re glad to be on this adventure with you.

Clients, when you’re ready to get things in motion, reach out.

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Play the audio version of this post below:

Does Money Go Stale? – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text can be found at https://www.228Main.com/.

The 3% Solution
photo shows a red basket full of red apples in the grass

Finding potential bargains is one of the hidden joys of stock market disruptions. (And seeking bargains is a core principle for us!) Sometimes, economic setbacks affect the value of enterprises that are actually quite durable, companies that will probably survive and ultimately prosper.

We noted a few months ago that bargains had emerged among those providers of basics—like food, clothing, and shelter—and that we were likely to still need these things in the future.

Now we are noticing another benefit to some of these prospects.

Dividend yields in the 3% range in name brand companies, although not guaranteed, offer the opportunity for actual recurring investment income. You know another one of our core principles is owning the orchard for the fruit crop. Well, a share of ownership in a profitable enterprise, when some of those profits are distributed as dividends to the owners, can be like owning an orchard.

While the value of the orchard (or the ownership share) will fluctuate, the crop (or the dividend) may be a sufficient reason to simply own it.

Why are we mentioning this now? Income-producing investments may be a way to offset the twin Federal Reserve policies of near-zero interest rates combined with the intent to raise the cost of living by 2% per year. (Officials speak of wanting to “hit a 2% inflation target,” but that is just another way to say “increase in the cost of living.”) When savings is earning less than the inflation rate, purchasing power erodes day by day.

Let’s keep our eyes open.

Clients, if you would like to talk about options for your cash or any other portfolio issue, please email us or call.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

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A is A

© Can Stock Photo / hurricanehank

At the height of ancient Greek civilization, the philosopher Aristotle taught the Law of Identity. A is A. Everything has a single identity, not two or more, and two different things do not share the same identity. A is A. A dog is not a cat; an orange is not an orangutan, an olive is an olive.

One wonders what has been lost through the centuries, when considering Federal Reserve Bank policy. The Fed, as it is known, is charged with a dual mandate. It is supposed to promote maximum employment and stable prices.

If Aristotle were alive today, he might teach that stable prices are stable prices. This would be in accordance with the Law of Identity. A thing is what it is. Yet the Fed has adopted a 2% inflation target, supposedly in accordance with its mandate of price stability1.

At 2% inflation, a dollar today buys only 98 cents worth of goods next year and about 96 cents the year after. Prices would double every 35 years or so, under this inflation target. Over the course of a century, a dollar would shrink to about 12 cents in purchasing power. In what sense is this ‘price stability?’ It violates the simple precept that Aristotle taught 2,300 years ago.

One error some people make is presuming the things we can measure are important, and the things we cannot measure are unimportant. Higher dollar volumes of activity are presumed to be good. So when productivity or technological improvements reduce prices of things we purchase and use, we are obviously better off—but conventional economic statistics may indicate otherwise.

There are ramifications for us as investors. The threats to our prosperity from inflation may be discounted by the Federal Reserve. The advantages of technological progress are understated. We think this means we need to be more sensitive to the damage that future inflation might do to our wealth, and the opportunities presented by technological progress.

Clients, if you have any questions about this or any other pertinent topic, please email us or call.

1Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific investment. Your results may vary.