Inflated Expectations

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Back in 1970, gas was 25 cents a gallon and you could buy a liter of Coca-Cola for 15 cents. We all know that money is not what it used to be. When planning for the future, we need to remember that our money is not always going to be what it is now, either.

Conventional monetary policy aims for “normal” levels of inflation in the low 2-3% range per year. That may not sound like much, but it adds up. At this level of inflation, prices double approximately every 30 years. If you bury a dollar in the ground and dig it back up in 30 years, you can expect it to only buy half of what it could buy today.

For some people, this is fantastic news. If you take out a mortgage to buy a house, it gradually becomes easier for you to pay it off over the lifetime of the loan. At the end of a 30 year mortgage you’ll still be paying off the same amount, but the prices of everything else (including your wages) will have doubled. A small amount of inflation gives people incentives to invest and take risks with their money, helping make the economy more productive.

If you’re planning to retire on fixed assets, however, inflation poses a serious threat to you. With advances in healthcare it’s not unreasonable to expect new retirees to live another 30 years. After thirty years of inflation your retirement assets will only buy half as much in groceries and rent. Retirement funds that seem generous when you’re 65 may leave you in dire straits when you’re 95.

The simplest way to fix this is just to have more money than you’ll ever need—it doesn’t matter if your money loses spending power if you have even more money to spend. Of course, this is easier said than done! Saving diligently and spending wisely will only take you so far. If your retirement bucket isn’t big enough to weather inflation, you need to be able to grow your bucket. A balanced growth and income portfolio can potentially give you retirement income while still having some growth possibilities.

There are no guarantees; the future is full of uncertainty. Growth-oriented holdings can be volatile, and it takes steady nerves to watch the value of your retirement holdings going up and down. If you can tolerate it, though, including growth holdings as part of your retirement portfolio can give you a chance to stay ahead of inflation.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.