cyclical markets

When Hope or Hype Ride High: Time to Ring the Bell? 

By Mark Leibman, Advisor

Our long study of “the market” has taught us that it’s more of a market of stocks, less of a stock market. Each company has its own story and charts its own path. People often use the broad market averages as a shorthand, a quick way to check how things are doing, generally: “the market” might actually refer to the companies listed on the Dow or to ones in the S&P 500, for instance.

But our work is aimed at picking our spots, looking beyond any one average. We’ve talked about this before in more detail, about what it means to invest in the broad market averages or indexes versus what we’re trying to do at 228 Main.

Part of our approach is about spotting the patterns. We keep an eye on parts of the investment universe that seem to run in long cycles. For instance, since 2015, the largest investable companies have dramatically outperformed smaller companies, with more than twice the gains in general. (The biggest of the big are all over the news these days, with hopes and/or hype of AI dominating the chatter.)

A similar thing happened in the 90s, when internet stocks dominated. Their run ended with the “Tech Wreck,” in 2000. Back then, while the big tech stocks got crushed, other parts of the market did much better. In the years that followed, smaller companies did a far better job of delivering gains. In fact, smaller companies outperformed from the market peak in 2000 until about 2015—seemingly, when the current cycle began.

Notice how we’ve said nothing so far about “timing the market.” A strategy that requires precise timing is not sustainable. In fact, it’s impossible: we can’t pretend to know ahead of time the exact right day to change course.

Instead, there is so much potential advantage in preparing for the inflection point, rather than predicting it. We can assemble the building blocks that may be most useful in whatever part of the cycle comes next. After all, the next part of the cycle is always on its way.

Clients, you know I’ve had a lifelong obsession with the markets. Our research team, to this day, is informed by a quest to seek the best bargains and a general principle of avoiding stampedes. It is these things that can potentially help set us up for life on the other side of the trend change, once it happens.

What’s got our attention? The research team at 228 Main is noticing high valuations in the big company indicators like the S&P 500. Market value seems to be concentrated in the biggest companies, perhaps in a way we have not seen since the 2000 inflection point. And we are finding possible bargains in smaller companies, and value stocks, and in other geographies around the world.

They say nobody rings a bell at the turning points… but consider it rung. We believe we’re close enough, that we’re far enough into inflection point territory, you could say.

As a result, our portfolios right now are reflecting diversification that will hopefully make greater sense in the months and years ahead. The future is going to be different than the past, even though we humans tend to believe current trends and conditions will persist.

Owning the 500 or the biggest U.S. equity funds may provide a very different experience in the years ahead. A decade or so of outperformance, megacap versus smaller companies, will sooner or later come to an end.

We believe it’s a great time to rethink the tactics that have worked so well for the past decade. No guarantees, of course. We have a crystal ball, but it does not work. Instead, what has tended to serve us well are the enduring principles we use in our work: avoid stampedes, look for the bargains, own the orchard for the fruit crop.

This is a call to think about it, not a call to buy or sell anything. And second opinions are always available at 228 Main.

Clients, call or write if you or anyone in your life would like to talk more about this.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

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Play the audio version of this post below:

When Hope or Hype Ride High: Time to Ring the Bell? – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text is available at https://www.228Main.com/.

Sometimes the Right Move Is to Stop and Breathe 

by Billy Garver, Chief Compliance Officer

More content from Billy

I took a walk one weekend in Lincoln, Nebraska—I walk a lot and enjoy exploring. I like to pick one of our many trails in town, park next to the closest coffee shop, and walk in one direction for a few miles, then turn around. But this particular weekend, I picked a new trail, one that led outside of the city. This time I wanted a little more time to think, and I ended up a little farther out than normal.

When I checked my map, I saw that if I went about a mile more, I would find myself in Walton, Nebraska.

Why not? I’d never been to Walton. But my choice to go to Walton turned my typical one-hour walk into a two-hour walk.

Still two miles from the car, my legs started to get wobbly, and my face flushed. Had I pushed it too far? Anxiety started to gnaw at my confidence. “I’ll be stranded out here,” I thought. “If I pass out, who will find me?”

At this point, I just needed to stop and assess the situation. I found a place to sit for a few minutes, had a gulp of water, and took some focused breaths. After five minutes, I was ready to restart my journey, one step at a time.

Turns out, I wasn’t in danger. I just needed to take a break, reassess, and breathe.

This happens in the shop sometimes, too. For example, when we see portfolios decline, the first reaction can be just like the scary one I had on the trail. But the next step isn’t to assemble the research team to sell out: the next step is to pause and assess the situation. What’s in the companies’ filings that might have caused the markets’ reaction? We need to form our own understanding of the situation.

Covering new ground can make it feel like we’re too far from safety. But there’s a big difference between real danger and perceived danger.

The next time you find yourself in one of these spots, it’s okay to pause and reassess. Is what I’m thinking and feeling real? Or is it just a perception that needs another look?

And know that the team here at 228Main.com will be doing the same.

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Sometimes the Right Move Is to Stop and Breathe – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text is available at https://www.228Main.com.

Changing the Recipe

There are many ways to get the job done. Whether the job is getting dinner on the table or investing for retirement, rarely does it ever come down to an ultimatum, something like, “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.”

What if you just need a different recipe?

Join Billy for a walk, as he shares his thoughts about how to switch things up in this week’s message.

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When Buying “The Stock Market” May Not Be Optimal 

When people talk about “the stock market,” they might actually be thinking of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or the S&P 500 Index. These lists are what they sound like: averages and indexes of exchange-traded securities.

And one popular school of investing calls for buying index “funds,” collections that offer a slice of what’s happening on one of those lists. The goal is to capture the list’s average return. It’s simple, easy, and relatively inexpensive to seek to replicate those market averages.

But there’s a tradeoff. There have been extended periods when those averages basically went nowhere for many years at a time. The “average” approach means you are by definition going with the crowd. But crowds can become herds, which can turn into stampedes.

This is what happened with the raging Nifty Fifty and again in the Tech Wreck.

Back in 1973, the “Nifty Fifty” stocks were all the rage. Many scrambled to buy and hold these dominating stocks, names like IBM, Xerox, or Coca Cola. One might say there was a stampede into the favored names. Valuations got stretched, the S&P 500 peaked—and proceeded to fall about 50%.

It took until 1982 to regain that 1973 peak, before moving any higher: a decade with essentially no progress.

It happened again from March 2000 to 2013, a time that got the nickname the “Lost Decade.” This time, the mania was internet stocks. Technology and communications companies dominated the S&P 500, and investors got excited. Again, more people stampeded in, valuations got stretched, the S&P 500 peaked—and proceeded to fall about 50%. Not until 2013 did the index begin to make and hold new, higher ground.

So what was problematic about those peaks? The largest companies became a much larger fraction of the total value of the S&P 500. The top companies in 1973 and 2000 had become worth many times the bottom companies combined.

Staying with the crowd—buying indexes and aiming to capture averages—is not the only way to invest. In those episodes from history, some other sectors fared better than the fallen favorites and broad U.S. market averages. There were those smaller companies, value-style investments, and overseas markets that generally went up during the Lost Decade.

At 228 Main, our core investing principles include “avoid the stampede” and “seek the best bargains.” As such, while the largest companies in the S&P 500 are becoming increasingly concentrated at the top—reminiscent of 1973 and 2000—valuations may be getting stretched once again. We are seeking to have more and more of our portfolios invested other places. (Research is a core activity here, a daily discipline, and we invest a lot of time and energy into it.)

That is to say, we’re seeking opportunities outside the averages. We’ve got our eye on value-style companies—those that seem to provide a lot of current profits, or cash flow, or dividends relative to each dollar invested. We’re seeking companies operating in faster-growing economies, the ones that provide food, shelter, transportation, communications, or energy (and are trading at more attractive prices). We want to know what’s happening with smaller companies, the opportunities that don’t fit the profile of those mega-sized names that dominate the market averages today.

There are tradeoffs involved with either approach.

  • When we follow the averages, we risk following the crowd straight into a stampede.
  • When we buy the bargains, our particular favorites may get cheaper while the darlings of the market are still climbing higher. Our portfolio performance could generally lag a red-hot market.

To be clear, we are still invested in those large U.S. growth companies we’ve mentioned. But, clients, we’re more diversified now than we’ve been at any time since the early 2000s. Even though we may be on the right track for long-term investors, it can be lonely to be contrarian. So it’s times like these that it helps to check in, take the long view, and make sure the methods suit the goals.

And for us, it’s the pursuit of capturing the potential growth, for the long run. No guarantees, but that’s what we’re working toward.

Clients, please call or email us if you would like to talk about this or anything else.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

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Play the audio version of this post below:

When Buying “The Stock Market” May Not Be Optimal – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text can be found at https://www.228Main.com/.

If All Your Friends Did It…

It sounds great in an action movie: “This is no time to panic!” But… is it ever a good time to panic? Sounds like a lot of work, anyway. 😊

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The Weirdest Recession Ever?
photo shows a magnified image of the word "definition" in a dictionary

It’s been months, but one of the biggest words from 2022 is still in the air: recession.

Are we headed into a recession?

Are we currently in a recession?

Are we already recovering from a brief, sort-of recession?

Depending on how you want to answer, any of these might be true. The definitions vary, so the answers do too.

The most common definition is based on multiple quarters of falling gross domestic product—the sum of all national economic activity. With GDP numbers declining slightly throughout the first half of the year, we technically found ourselves in a recession.

But the next important figure economists look at to determine recessions is unemployment, which remains near 50-year average lows. So by that measure, the economy is still sizzling!

Through the lens of the stock market, we again find conflicting answers. For most of the statements investors received in 2022, many holdings were down. But at the same time, many of those companies were reporting record earnings. According to stock prices, we are in a recession; according to stock earnings, we are still in a growth cycle.

So how can investors make informed decisions, when even economists struggle to agree on the nature of a recession?

Here, we believe taking the long view is instructive: we cannot say with full certainty whether we are currently in a recession, nor whether we will be in a recession a month or two from now. But we can know with absolute certainty that there will be recessions in the future—which also means that recoveries are still on the horizon, too. Night, day. Recession, recovery.

We know that the economy is cyclical. It has its upturns and downturns. But if you are investing for the decades ahead—maybe your future retirement or for a legacy for your children and through generations—your concern should not be on what the economy is doing today, next quarter, or even next year.

Your focus should be on trying to grow the bucket the best we can for the long haul.

We don’t ignore the day-to-day action, of course. But in good times and bad, we allow ourselves to be guided by simple, timeless principles. We focus on avoiding market stampedes and looking for the best bargains we can find. And these principles, we believe, are equally important whether we are in the depths of recession or a roaring expansion.

The talking heads can keep on debating whether we are in a “real” recession or not. That is what they are paid to do, after all. Meanwhile, we are going to keep on doing what we are paid to do: trying to grow the bucket, find opportunities, tweak portfolios.

Feel free to drop in or give us a call if you’d like to talk about this, or anything else.

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The Weirdest Recession Ever? – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text can be found at https://www.228Main.com/.

Fast Times, Slow Times
photo shows a throttle with an image of a tortoise and an image of a hare

The past two years require some context: the fastest bear market ever then became the fastest recession ever that then became the fastest recovery ever. In fact, the S&P 500 stock index doubled from the low point faster than ever. At the start of the pandemic, with so much fear and uncertainty, the five-week drop was sharp but short.

Then things turned around.

All we had to do as investors was sit tight, rearrange things a little where we saw a chance at a bargain, and wait a short while.

Long-time clients will remember the slow times of the past, when bad weeks in the middle of bad quarters in the middle of bad years seemed to go on forever.

When account balances were lower than the year before.

When it seemed like the economy would never recover.

The human tendency is to believe that current trends or conditions will continue: it makes it difficult to keep the faith in the slow, bad times. But we know how this works, so we keep the faith despite it all. Spring comes after winter. Recovery and growth follow recessions.

The fast times we’ve had recently will inevitably slow down. The next recession, the next bad year is out there. No one knows when. Those who claim to know are so often wrong they can’t be relied upon. We find solace in knowing the tough times may bring us the bargains that make the good times good.

Clients, we will continue to rely on the principles that have served us well over the many years we’ve been at it. Looking for bargains, avoiding stampedes, seeking to own the orchard for the fruit crop. Whether trends are moving fast or slow, up or down, we seek to understand the seasons and the cycles of the market.

We cannot guarantee results, but we’ll still be here doing what we do when times change. Clients, if you would like to reminisce about the olden days or talk about the future, please email us or call.

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Fast Times, Slow Times – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

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On Not Hulking Out
photo shows a ripple on a lake at sunrise

Forget willpower, forget control. What if the big secret in life was just letting things be?

We were reminded the other day of the classic Marvel character the Hulk. There have been too many versions of this giant green guy to count, but his whole deal comes down to losing his composure. “Hulking out” has come to mean flying off the handle, usually in a rage.

When new acquaintances learn what we do for a living, they wonder how much of our time we spend just sitting with upset or aggravated clients: does every new headline set people off? How do we handle all the turmoil?

Clients, you can imagine how I just smile through these conversations! You know that you’ve come to be the best clients in the world by the way we navigate things together. We know how to put short-term downturns in perspective, how to ride the highs and lows with our eyes on the big picture.

Of course there’s turmoil: so much of life is that way! Why would it shake us?

The Hulk reveals his big secret, how he has harnessed his anger to put it to his own uses (in his case, to fight villains of all sizes). It’s not about taming his anger; it’s about living with it.

“I’m always angry,” he says.

Clients, that’s the ticket right there: things are always a little uncomfortable. And we can choose to accept it as part of the deal.

Want to talk pain, gain, or anything in between? Email or call the shop, anytime.

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On Not Hulking Out – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text is available at https://www.228Main.com/.