tactical investing

Flexible Tactics, Timeless Values

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In business, the things that change draw a lot of energy. New technology, new ways of doing things, and new ideas grab our attention. The new offers the promise of competitive advantage.

Less attention goes to the things that never change. The timeless things can compound over long periods. Successful enterprises may need to harness both the new and the timeless. At 228 Main, we need both to serve you well.

For example, Amazon is one of the most dynamic companies in the world. The growth and evolution of the company has been astonishing. Yet founder Jeff Bezos focuses most closely on the things that never change.

According to Bezos, his customers want low prices, vast selection, and fast delivery. They wanted those things twenty years ago, and they will want those same things twenty years from now. When you invest in meeting unchanging needs, the returns may roll in for many years.

Writer and thinker Morgan Housel wrote that every sustainable business relies on one or more timeless features. We believe the key features you would like us to deliver include close human interaction, confidence and trust, and transparency. (Transparency in this context means ‘what you see is what you get.’)

We have previously noted that 21st century communications allow us to be radically transparent and to connect more closely. When we improve our processes for research and trading and portfolio analysis, we generate more time to work with you one on one. Our sense is that all these things together may increase your confidence in us.

Amazon continuously improves methods and tactics to deliver on its timeless strategy. We seek to do the same. Clients, if you would like to offer your perspective (or discuss anything else), please email us or call.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Amazon, Leibman Financial Services and LPL Financial are not affiliated.

The Power of Patience

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One of the basic principles of investing is that the longer your time horizon, the greater the yield you can generally expect. On certificates of deposit at the bank, you get higher interest on longer maturities. If you are buying US Treasury bonds, the 10 year bond usually has a higher yield than the 1 year bond. Conversely, if you are taking out a loan, you pay higher interest on a 30 year loan than on a 10 year loan.

If you’ve got a long time horizon, this seems like an easy way to maximize your returns. But there is no such thing as a free lunch—the only reason issuers will pay you more for a longer time to maturity is because they are hoping to get something out of it.

Some individuals may have short term outlooks, and be easily spooked out of the market. That’s bad news for investment companies and debt issuers who find their money reserves drying up when investors start cashing out. If investors lock into longer terms the companies are free to implement longer term strategies with less of a worry about investors abruptly pulling the rug out from under them. That is why they are willing to pay higher yields to keep the money in for longer.

It sounds like a win/win situation, but there are risks to buying longer term investments. A lot can happen in thirty years! Maybe the investment landscape changes and what looked like great returns at the time turns into chump change when newer investments start yielding more. Maybe the issuer runs into trouble, raising questions about the security of the investment. If you were holding a shorter term instrument, you might have avoided those problems.

The good news is that you, too, can benefit from a longer term perspective—without needing to lock your money away in illiquid long-term investments. If you are not jumping in and out of investments in response to short term swings you can cut down the drag on your portfolio and potentially enjoy better returns. Even better, you can specifically seek out more volatile investments that are less popular with investors and may command higher returns than more stable, popular investments. By investing for the long haul, you may enjoy the higher returns that may be available on long-term money.

And, because you did not actually have to lock in your investments for decades, you are still able to react to major upheavals. You can ride through the small bumps without hurting yourself by selling out low and still be able to pull out if you need to.

Of course, staying the course may be easier said than done. Tolerating volatility has been a path to higher returns in the past, but not everyone is capable of doing that. We believe there is an advantage to investing for the long term. But one may retain liquidity—the freedom to change tactics—instead of committing to a course for years or decades to come. Clients, if you want to talk about your time horizon, please call or email us.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

CD’s are FDIC Insured and offer a fixed rate of return if held to maturity.

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.

This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific investment. Your results may vary.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal.

The Tactical Bubble

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Our long-time friends know that avoiding stampedes is one of our fundamental principles. We human beings know how to take things too far, history suggests. So we are always on the lookout for trends that may have become too popular.

A year or two ago, in the investment product market, “unconstrained bond managers” were all the rage. With interest rates near all-time low points and risk high, these magicians would own only the smart parts of the somewhat risky bond market. It turns out that all the money that poured into this idea would not fit into just the smart stuff.

We see a new trend today. Solicitations and information about investment concepts and products comes at us all day long, every day. Organizations would like us to send your money to them; human nature being what it is, they usually emphasize popular ideas, or ones that sound great. One term dominates these pitches nowadays.

You know we are contrarian—if everyone else likes something, we believe that alone is a reason to be cautious.

The trendy term is “tactical.” One of the dictionary definitions is “adroit in planning or maneuvering to accomplish a purpose.”

It is out of fashion to simply acknowledge (as we do) that the markets are volatile and fluctuate, an inherent feature that long term investors must face. The popular delusion is to pretend that a “tactical” manager can own stocks while they go up, then sell out to avoid the damage from the inevitable downturn.

It is a great story. Unfortunately, as a wise person noted a very long time ago, “They do not ring a bell at the top.” Is a 1% decline the first step of a 20% bear market? Or is it just the typical volatility that jerks the market around every week or month? No one ever knows.

The risk is that a small decline shakes the tactical investor out of the market, right before it turns around and makes new highs.

We have no issue in being ‘adroit in maneuvering.’ We think our work over the past couple of years shows that we are, hopefully, more adroit than ever. But it stretches credulity to believe that vast amounts of money can all be adroit at the same time.

Investors who have been fooled into believing that volatility can be sharply reduced or eliminated with no adverse effects on performance are likely to be disappointed. We are studying the potential impact if and when the “tactical” fad unwinds. Clients, if you would like to discuss this or any other matter, please email us or call.

Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price.

Tactical allocation may involve more frequent buying and selling of assets and will tend to generate higher transaction cost. Investors should consider the tax consequences of moving positions more frequently.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, a Registered Investment Advisor, Member FINRA/SIPC.