Hope, optimism, belief, notion… In our line of work, it doesn’t matter how you say it. We’re banking on the idea that, overall, we’ll see more up than down.
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ups and downs
Swimming Upstream
The History of the Stock Market: A 5-Word Story
The entire history of the stock market fits into five simple words: it goes up and down. We can’t know the schedule ahead of time, and this can stir up some stress in the short term. But it seems reasonable to guess this whole “up and down” thing may persist.
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It Goes Up and Down: Some Questions for a Moment Like This
The history of the stock market can be summed up pretty well: it goes up and down. As for the future, we cannot know for certain whether it will continue to go up and down—or on what schedule—but it seems reasonable to take the liberty of guessing this whole “up and down” thing may persist.
When things are down 20% from their most recent peak, and we recognize it goes up and down, this may well be as good a time as any to invest.
We might have a recession, but current lower prices already reflect a lower outlook. You could say sentiment is already in the mix, already baked into prices. And anyway, where there’s a recession, there’s surely a recovery to follow.
Do we know the timing? Nope. But we never do. (That’s where the whole up-down thing comes back into focus.)
There is much we do not know, but we have faith that perhaps our guesses may be good enough to get by. We believe, for example, that in the future there is money to be made by companies that meet our needs. We have a hunch we will continue to eat, shop, entertain ourselves, wear clothes, go places, communicate, create, and do all those other things humans tend to do. And we have an opportunity now to invest in companies that could provide those things then.
Clients, some things to consider at such a moment as this:
- Is there room to start or add to a Roth or IRA?
- Should some funds in a stable-but-stagnant form perhaps be invested for long-term growth?
- Would a Roth conversion make sense given these lower prices?
It goes up and down. And when we invest for the long run, we commit to the ups and the downs both. One never knows when the trend will change, just that it very well may.
If it’s time for you to add to long-term holdings, please email us or call the shop—anytime.
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Play the audio version of this post below:
It Goes Up and Down: Some Questions for a Moment Like This – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services
This text is available at https://www.228Main.com/.
I. AM. EXCITED.
Maybe you’ve noticed… but I can be an enthusiastic fellow! But some believe emotions don’t have a role in investing… I’ve got some thoughts.
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A Million-Dollar Retirement Idea
Wondering what it takes to retire early? It’s not a universal formula, but we can take the idea of accumulating a million dollars of invested capital as a decent proxy. How might the numbers shake out?
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Feel the Churn
Back in the snowbird chapter of my life, we learned that stormy weather—rough seas—washed a wealth of interesting shells up on the beach. Looking for shells was always more fruitful when the weather had been rough.
The world situation and our markets have been nothing if not stormy this year! War has few parallels as a human tragedy; the economic ramifications are widespread.
Some of our holdings have risen in price because of the disruptions: raw materials and miners and energy, for example. Others have gone the other way.
But overall, we’re pleased with how our holdings have behaved.
Just as rough weather washes shells up on the beach, we’ve found new opportunities in the rough markets. The other thing that turmoil brings us is the chance to rebalance—take some money off the top of things that have gone up, add to the bargains that emerge among our holdings.
While some are paralyzed by the commotion, we’re finding that our principles are serving us well:
- We look for the best bargains
- We own the orchard for the fruit crop
- We avoid stampedes in the market
Clients, want to talk more about what this means for you? Reach out, at any time.
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Play the audio version of this post below:
Feel the Churn – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services
This text is available at https://www.228Main.com/.
In Any Language, There’s One Simple Investing Goal
Hope, optimism, belief, confidence… In our line of work, it doesn’t matter how you say it. We’re banking on the idea that, overall, we’ll see more up than down.
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Minding the Bears
One recent morning, I was lucky enough to be hiking on a mountain trail with my sister. The air was crisp and clear, the smell of the pines was thick—a beautiful day.
We came across animal tracks, then more animal tracks, on the muddy parts of the trail.
We knew before we started that there were bears in the neighborhood. (In fact, one might say we were in the bears’ neighborhood!) The tracks seemed to have the shape of claws, with a size and depth that impressed me with a desire to avoid a meeting.
It seemed as good a time as any to turn around, so we did. My senses were on high alert as we began to descend. We reached the trailhead without incident.
Later, I looked up the facts about bear attacks. Only one out of 175 million people worldwide is the victim of a fatal bear attack each year, fewer than two in the whole United States.
The danger I perceived was far larger than the actual risk involved.
This reminds me of where we are in the investment markets. It seems to be the economic equivalent of a beautiful day: the market has had a sharp rebound from the pandemic lows of 2020. Yet some are concerned about the bear (a bear market meaning, of course, a big decline).
Just as there are plenty of bears in the wooded mountains, there are regular declines in the stock market. Some estimate that 10 to 15% declines are routine each year. But fear of the bear often seems to be greater than the actual damage a bear market might do to long-term investors.
Learning to live with the ups and downs, one may benefit from long-term growth in value. But fear of a decline that proves to be temporary—and rarely truly catastrophic—may lead one to sell out long before money is actually needed, with future gains foregone.
Clients, thank you for inviting us to hike the trails of your life with you. If you would like to talk bears or mountains or markets, please email us or call.
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Play the audio version of this post below:
Minding the Bears – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services
This text is available at https://www.228Main.com/.
Living the Reality
We have heard the phrase “living the dream” when someone describes a life in which everything is going well. I have used it myself once or twice.
But the truth is life has rough spots. What dream would include family and friends with chronic diseases and other issues, funerals for those we admire or love, and all the other challenges one might face?
Of course, there are joyous and glorious things in life, too. Most of us would have a difficult time counting all of our blessings. So joy and pain—both are part of the deal. Some have it better, some have it worse, and our fortunes do fluctuate.
We believe the long-term view that serves investors well is also valuable in keeping the bad patches in perspective. “This too shall pass” is helpful in thinking about both the worst times in our lives and economic recessions or market turmoil. One may find glimmers of hope for better days even on bad days.
Another way to cope is to find ways to soften or cushion or rebalance some of our worries. I outsource worrying about the lawn to a lawn service, for example, while I get to worry more about how to grow your buckets. Hopefully, by letting us worry about your buckets for you, you might have less worrying to do. If we can do that, we will know that our work has value and we are probably doing something right.
We are not living the dream. We are living the reality, coping when we need to, celebrating when we can. That is life in all its glory.
So grateful you are a part of it.
Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.
All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.
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