long time horizon

How to Live in Your Life

photo shows a red pencil and two options with checkboxes that read "today" and "tomorrow"

In the spring, we checked in with friends and family as work and school and much of life was in upheaval. Some folks were struggling more than others. We talked with one friend who sat through meetings in the office about how the switch to remote work was going to be handled when (not if) the team went that direction.

“I heard what they were saying, but I didn’t believe it,” our friend said. Within days, the team was out of the office. The friend was home three weeks before it finally sank in: work had gone remote.

Have you ever felt that way? Like your body has moved somewhere but your mind is refusing to catch up?

“It just feels like I’m waiting for Monday, like we’ll be back any day now,” the friend said.

The shock of change can have lots of effects on us, and we do not fault anyone going through this thought process. It made us wonder, though… What is the pandemic teaching us about time horizons?

You’ve heard this from us before: “long-term investing” is a little redundant. as we believe better chances for success lie in longer time horizons. It’s easy to outperform a strategy for short-term goals if you’re playing the long game.

2020 has been a months-long lesson in this perspective, hasn’t it? As spring turned to summer, a lot of folks had to come to grips with the idea that we could be in this situation for a while.

We are all about taking things one at a time, about taking life one day at a time—but how would our day-to-day change if we were geared toward the long term?

“I could be here a while…”

How could that phrase change your home life? Your retirement goals? Where you want to wake up each day? Your grocery and shopping routines?

Clients, what a time of change and reckoning we’re living through. But we’d like to help you do just that: live through it. Live in it.

When you’d like to talk about this or anything else, please write or call.


Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

A MORE PERFECT UNION

picture of a roll of red and white "I VOTED" stickers

“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union…”

So reads the Preamble to the Constitution, which frames the purpose of one of our nation’s fundamental documents.

The authors didn’t necessarily mean the plan was “flawless.” We’re not constitutional scholars, but a quick search will reveal that the word “perfect,” at the time, used this way, might have suggested something more like complete, confident, or whole.

In an election year, it can be hard to appreciate that idea. Party leaders insist on playing “spot the difference,” so our attention is often spent on divisions and comparisons.

Some people anticipate elections with anxiety about their holdings. They wonder how to “election-proof” their portfolio. History has some uplifting news for us here too. Again, it only takes a quick search to reveal that the outlook is generally okay immediately following a presidential election. Not “perfect” results or glorious returns, but generally okay.

No guarantees. Clients, we talk a lot about the long haul, and it is not measured in election cycles.

We are looking forward to an election season in which each of us can use our voices and exercise our rights, all in the name of improving this grand experiment, together.

We’ll see you on the other side, but in the meantime, call or write whenever you’d like to chat.

 

Pain and Gain

© Can Stock Photo / Anke

Great thinker Morgan Housel talks about the scene in Lawrence of Arabia in which one man snuffs a match out with his fingers and doesn’t flinch. Another tries it, yells in pain, and asks what the trick is. “The trick is not minding that it hurts.”

Housel concludes “accepting a little pain has huge benefits. But it will always be rare, because it hurts.”

The implication for our business with you is clear. Housel concisely states what we’ve been working to convey for years: “The upside when you simply accept and endure the pain from market declines is that future declines don’t hurt as bad. You realize it’s just part of the game.”

That you have learned this lesson, and tend to live by it even when it is uncomfortable is why we say you are the best clients in the world. We feel fortunate, because it is rare. Somehow we found or attracted people with effective investing instincts, or helped to instill those.

The key to making this work in the real world is avoiding the need to sell at bad times. Cash reserves and adequate cash flow are the things that let us live with short term fluctuations with our long term money.

When we are all on the same page, we spend less time worrying about, and explaining, day to day or week to week market action. Almost all financial market commentary may be summarized by saying “it goes up and down.”

This gives us time to hunt for bargains, think about trends on the horizon, and work on your plans and planning. All of these are more worthwhile uses of our time than attempting to explain why the market went up or down yesterday, or predict what it might do tomorrow.

Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

Letters To Our Children #8: Keep Your Eye on the Horizon

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We wrote before about your three investment buckets, each with a different time horizon. Here is why that is so crucial.

Business founder Jeff Bezos highlighted the key thing about time horizons.
“If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you are competing with a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you are now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that. Just by lengthening the time horizon, you can engage in endeavors that you could never otherwise pursue.”

The investment parallel is clear: just by lengthening the time horizon, you can live with the short term volatility that is inherent in the pursuit of long term investment results.

Those with a short time horizon—an insistence that market values be stable day to day or month to month—can generally expect meager returns. Stable values and liquidity both cost a premium, and if you want both you’re not left with much room for returns. This is good for your short-term bucket, but may hamper you anywhere else.

Behavioral economists have a theory that the preference for stability is very strong, part of human nature. If the demand for stability is high, then the price of stability may be high—and the rewards for enduring volatility may prove to be large since fewer are willing to do it. This is based on our opinion, no guarantees!

Bottom line: we believe in investing for the long term with your long term money, and leaving short term strategies to your short term bucket. It pays to understand volatility, and its role in your investment returns. No matter what, you should be able to live with your chosen strategy, even when (especially when?) it is uncomfortable.

Clients, if you have questions about this or anything else, please email us or call.


Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

Building a Faster Horse

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There is a quotation often attributed to Henry Ford: “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

Biographers and historians have never managed to find any evidence that Ford ever uttered this statement, so it remains apocryphal. But the sentiment remains true to Ford’s reputation as a stubborn visionary.

For investors as well as consumers, sometimes there is a difference between what we need and what we want. We all want stability in our portfolios: why not? But stability often comes at a cost of lower income or growth potential. If you are sure you have all the money you will ever need, it makes sense to invest for stability. If you need your money to work for you, though, you may have to hold your nose and accept volatility.

If you really want stability, you can bury your money in a hole in the backyard. It will never grow, but you know that if you dig it back up you will still have what you put in.

The same is not true if you invest in volatile holdings. The value of your portfolio can and certainly will go down sometimes. As painful as that is, if you can afford to wait there is a possibility that it may recover over the long run.

If you just buried your cash in the backyard, there is no chance that it will suddenly produce more wealth. A long time horizon can smooth out the risks of a higher volatility portfolio, but it will not produce more gains from a more stable portfolio.

If we asked new prospects what they wanted, many would probably say they wanted stability. But that is not what we are selling. Not everyone has the same risk tolerance, and different amounts of volatility are appropriate depending on financial circumstances. We still generally think that learning to tolerate volatility may be more useful than seeking stability at all costs.

Clients, if you have anything to discuss, please call or email us.


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.