pandemic

Which Came First? The Bargain or the Growth Stock?
graphic shows an image of a hen and an image of a basket of eggs both taped to a chalkboard

It’s a classic thought experiment. “Which came first: the chicken or the egg?”

Clearly, the egg came first; that’s where chickens come from! But, wait. Who laid the egg?…

There’s a similar conundrum found in our work. In business and investing, we like to look for strong companies—ones that spend wisely, save well, and try to build an enterprise that can remain durable across changes in the economy. Often, these companies must have a strong balance sheet (i.e., more cash than debt) in order to grow to the size of an industry leader.

Clients, in the early stages of the pandemic, we invested in some companies leading their industries. Our original investing thesis was that even if the virus took its toll and a worst-case scenario occurred, people would still need the staples.

People would still need groceries.

People would still buy meat.

People would still order prescriptions.

While we were sure these everyday items would be impacted by pandemic life, we also believed they would likely survive—in one form or another.

Now many of these market leaders have been able to use the resources of a market leader to continue to evolve and transform organically. They may seem like “boring” companies on the surface, but in times of challenge, they are acting like growth stocks: many have been the first-movers among their peers, making plans that could shift their whole industries.

And believe it or not, we bought some of these companies as bargains. So which came first?

It’s fun being us. Clients, we are always looking for opportunities. Are you seeing anything that we should be watching? Let us know. And when you want to know more about what this all means for your portfolio, call or write.

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Play the audio version of this post below:

Which Came First? The Bargain or the Growth Stock? – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text is available at https://www.228Main.com/.

Never the Same Normal Twice
photo shows the word "normal" highlighted in the dictionary

At the start of 2020, few people could have guessed the whiplash and lasting impact the novel coronavirus has caused. The pandemic has affected each of us in different ways, some minor and some profound.

“The return to normalcy” has been a stated goal for many individuals, leaders, and communities. And different people have different perspectives on the types of costs they are willing to pay in the interest of the return to normalcy.

But what is normal?

Some of you are reading these words on the screen of a cell phone. A few decades ago, this moment would’ve sounded absurd. Our website is available online: 50 years ago, the internet was still firmly in the realm of science fiction. Heck, a century ago, the notion of an electronic programmable computer itself was beyond imagination.

Many things that we take for granted in our lives, it turns out, are hardly “normal” at all: in the big scheme, our everyday circumstances would be new and alien to those who came before us. The routines of our daily lives, the things that feel so comfortable and natural to us, are often a product of a specific time and place in human history.

The oldest among us—just at the edge of living memory—were born in a world that would have found many of our habits and rituals unrecognizable.

Other things, however, they would recognize in an instant. Survivors of the 1918 influenza epidemic would have been keenly familiar with wearing face masks in public and witnessing the ongoing debate about their usefulness and appropriateness. Stories about overcrowded hospitals and overworked doctors and discussions about “flattening the curve” would not have been new (or surprising) to them.

It turns out that not only is our “normal” actually abnormal, but our “abnormal” is more normal than we might think.

Someday, hopefully in the not-too-distant future, we will be able to close the chapter on this pandemic and our lives will return to normal.

… Which is to say, they will be different, new, and unprecedented. Just like always.

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Play the audio version of this post below:

Never the Same Normal Twice – 228Main.com Presents: The Best of Leibman Financial Services

This text is available at https://www.228Main.com/.

How to Live in Your Life
photo shows a red pencil and two options with checkboxes that read "today" and "tomorrow"

In the spring, we checked in with friends and family as work and school and much of life was in upheaval. Some folks were struggling more than others. We talked with one friend who sat through meetings in the office about how the switch to remote work was going to be handled when (not if) the team went that direction.

“I heard what they were saying, but I didn’t believe it,” our friend said. Within days, the team was out of the office. The friend was home three weeks before it finally sank in: work had gone remote.

Have you ever felt that way? Like your body has moved somewhere but your mind is refusing to catch up?

“It just feels like I’m waiting for Monday, like we’ll be back any day now,” the friend said.

The shock of change can have lots of effects on us, and we do not fault anyone going through this thought process. It made us wonder, though… What is the pandemic teaching us about time horizons?

You’ve heard this from us before: “long-term investing” is a little redundant. as we believe better chances for success lie in longer time horizons. It’s easy to outperform a strategy for short-term goals if you’re playing the long game.

2020 has been a months-long lesson in this perspective, hasn’t it? As spring turned to summer, a lot of folks had to come to grips with the idea that we could be in this situation for a while.

We are all about taking things one at a time, about taking life one day at a time—but how would our day-to-day change if we were geared toward the long term?

“I could be here a while…”

How could that phrase change your home life? Your retirement goals? Where you want to wake up each day? Your grocery and shopping routines?

Clients, what a time of change and reckoning we’re living through. But we’d like to help you do just that: live through it. Live in it.

When you’d like to talk about this or anything else, please write or call.

Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

All investing involves risk including loss of principal. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

It’s a Whole New Ball Game

picture shows sunrise behind dewy grass

Millions of us are living through new experiences. The global pandemic has affected many aspects of daily life. Sportscasters and others have used the expression “It’s a whole new ball game” to describe suddenly changed circumstances.

It seems apt now. The rate of change—and the stakes—in this pandemic can feel overwhelming and disorienting. And yet we wonder…

We humans start out knowing nothing about anything, right? Babyhood was a whole new ball game, along with getting teeth, walking, going to kindergarten, making friends (and enemies), and all the other developments in our lives.

So how is it that we have each managed to adapt and deal with this lifetime of ever-changing circumstances, coped with each and every “whole new ball game”? What lessons are there as we each deal with our current set of changes?

Some of the answers might be found in our own pasts, the things that have taught us perspective. Maybe the answers are in our goals and priorities: they could guide the way through. No matter what we each face now, the overall challenge of change remains.

We might revise the old saying and conclude, “It’s always a whole new ball game.”

Clients, if you’d like to discuss this or anything else, write or call.

Rational Optimists

Many businesses are weathering the pandemic by staying agile. Factories are retrofitting their equipment, computer-bound workers are getting more flexible working conditions, and food services are thinking outside the dining room. 

We recently read about how one brand we love is coping with COVID-19. The company Life Is Good has been slapping their cheerful slogans on shirts and coffee mugs for more than 20 years, and they had some tough decisions to make this spring. 

We had the pleasure of hearing from co-founder Bert Jacobs a few years ago. What struck us was that their flavor of optimism embraces life for its messy beauty. 

After 9/11 and the Boston Marathon bombing—moments when it would’ve been easy to fall into despair—the company responded. They sent the proceeds from special themed products straight to charity. Today, they’ve transformed their production process to make space between workstations and to be able to print shirts on-demand. 

Their core belief that life is good hasn’t wavered, and it’s served them well. Jacobs explains that their community is one of “rational optimists.” These are people who like to say, “Life isn’t easy, and life isn’t perfect. But life is good.” 

(And for whatever it’s worth, as of early July, they report zero COVID cases among employees at Life Is Good.) 

That idea has served us well, too. Life has not been easy, but here we are today. Life is good. 

Clients, if you want to talk through this or anything else, call or write. 

Caps, Gowns, and the Coronavirus

diploma (002)

COVID-19 has caused shifts and pivots across organizations and even whole industries. Along the way, many folks have decided to delay or cancel what would’ve been some wonderful milestones: a long-awaited family trip, a wedding, a move across country.

Some families will still be wrestling with such decisions for the months—and maybe years!—to come.

A college education is a common enough savings category, but some are rethinking their investment goals with so many changes coming for institutions.

We realize it can be hard to get perspective right now. The stress of the upcoming school year is looming, and prospective students will be making huge decisions based on information that seems to keep changing.

We wouldn’t dream of suggesting the “right answer” for you or your family. Here, however, we’d like to offer a little distance on some of the issues at the heart of this topic.

Is it worth it? Schools are being forced to experiment with how they will structure classes and campus life, so as consumers, many families are questioning the value of the experience they’re paying for. To zoom out, we recommend remembering what a degree will mean for a person after they’re done with it.

Yes, we want students across the country to enjoy a safe, rich, and rewarding couple of years at school, but both the journey and the destination should be part of the equation.

One thing that the pandemic won’t suddenly change? The long-term value of a college degree.

“The lifetime payoff to earning a college degree is so very large, in health and wealth, that it dwarfs even high tuition costs,” writes economist Susan Dynarski. “College is an especially smart choice during a terrible job market.”

An education is not armor against all the problems ahead, but it may still be a sound investment and worthy savings goal for you or your family.
Clients, if you want to talk through this or anything else, call or write.

Change: Lasting or Fleeting?

© Can Stock Photo / martinan

The efforts to slow the spread of Covid-19 are reshaping our lives. Work-from-home (WFH), social distancing, and self-isolation mean big changes, with some unforeseen consequences.

We have been thinking and studying some of the impacts on society, striving to understand the effects on commerce and the economy. There are many unknowns.

Fewer people commuting means less traffic past the coffee shop, less wear on automobiles, emptier workplaces. When the virus has faded, will these effects be lasting, or fleeting?

Will work-from-home gain a permanent boost, reducing the long term demand for office space?

Do those who formerly stopped at the coffee shop everyday resume that habit when they begin commuting again?

After enjoying more free time from less commuting, will more people seek to live closer to their work?

“Dinner and a movie” has given way to carry-out, cooking from scratch, and streaming services. What happens when the crisis fades?

What is the future for movie attendance?

Does cooking replace some fraction of restaurant meals?

What effects will these trends have on commercial real estate?

There have been other effects, too. Online shopping got a big boost from mass retail store closings. Weddings, funerals, and other kinds of gatherings have been cancelled or postponed. Some people report an increased interest in improving their health; others talk about using food or alcohol to deal with stress. Are these changes lasting or fleeting?

After the 1918-1919 great influenza pandemic, the Roaring Twenties followed. Were exuberance and celebration a bounceback from the isolation, sickness and death of the pandemic?

We have many questions. What do you think? If you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email us or call.

Flattening The Curve

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We have worked to understand as best we can the coronavirus. There are a lot of aspects to it: the health and safety of our family and friends, public health considerations, economic and investment effects. All this, while sorting through information and misinformation of varying quality.

Which of these are true?

“Most people experience negligible symptoms, or those of a typical case of the flu” or “The virus can cause rapid respiratory failure and death”?

“People who have no other health problems and are below age 60 have little risk” or “It is important for everyone to do what they can to slow the spread of the virus”?

“The experience of other countries should comfort us” or “The experience of other countries should concern us”?

Get your mind wide open, because all of these things contain some truth. Those who are below age 60 and healthy will likely only get mild symptoms with a low risk of death. But healthy people can spread it to at-risk people.

Do you have an elderly neighbor? A young cousin with asthma? Relatives with diabetes or cardiac disease? Are you around people that have organ transplants? Or being treated for cancer? No matter what course the virus takes in the weeks and months ahead, some people with those conditions are probably going to be struggling to stay alive. Not all will survive.

To protect ourselves and others, it makes sense to do what we can to slow the rate of infection. If cases spike up rapidly, hospitals will be overwhlemed, with catastrophic effects on care. (This happened in parts of Italy.) If the rate of infection is more moderate, health facilities have a better chance to stay ahead of the curve. It makes a difference on the death rate.

The experts call this moderating effect of slower infection rates “flattening the curve.” It’s a good thing.

The extremes are not where we want to be: the virus is not going to kill us all, but neither is it a big hoax. Clients, if you would like to talk about this or anything else, please email or call.